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I wish FCPX adopted these Premiere Pro features
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[Aindreas Gallagher] “[Walter Soyka] “But looking at products like Motion, which is now 11 years old and still running, or Aperture which was 10 when EOLed, Apple seems to have a tendency to produce something awesome, revolutionary and promising in version 1, develop it to a certain point in a flurry of activity over a few years… and then not take it significantly further.
Apple has earned a bit of reputation here, which is why the point of current slow development carries the weight it does outside of “the faithful.” This line of conversation doesn’t pause until Apple makes like a real artist and ships, and it doesn’t end until they do it consistently for a while.
”this is the bottom line, and pretty much everyone knows it.”
How much does any of this really matter when you think about it. Who thinks they will be working on the same program for the rest of their career anyway.
I started cutting in the mid 80’s on 3/4 inch machine to machine.
Then moved to cmx (better)
Then moved to AVID (better)
Then moved to FCP (I liked it better)
Then moved to X (I like it better)
I like X but something will come along years from now that I like better. Isn’t that just part of reality?
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[Tony West] “How much does any of this really matter when you think about it. Who thinks they will be working on the same program for the rest of their career anyway.”
The people that are still mad about FCP X being the replacement for FCP 7 probably did. I’m sure if Avid ‘pulled an X’ you’d see an even greater blow up because the fundamentals of operating Avid MC haven’t changed since the 90’s. Paradoxically people will say they don’t expect to be doing it the same way forever but they’ll still feel blind sided by change. Something along the lines of, “I know change is going to happen but I didn’t know/want/expect it to happen now.”
BTW, if you insert Premiere (the old Premiere) in between “Avid” and “FCP Legend” I think you’d label it “liked it less”. Not everything is onwards and upwards. 😉
-Andrew
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[Andrew Kimery] “[Tony West] “How much does any of this really matter when you think about it. Who thinks they will be working on the same program for the rest of their career anyway.”
The people that are still mad about FCP X being the replacement for FCP 7 probably did.”
I don’t know why they would think that. Everything is constantly changing in this field.
SD HD 6k you name it. The only thing anybody should know in this field is that there will be many changes ahead.
You might not “like”it but you should “expect” it
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[Tony West] “I don’t know why they would think that. Everything is constantly changing in this field.”
I agree, but I think a lot of people say they expect change to happen but they don’t prepare for change to happen. Kinda like how most people say they know they should have a supply of batteries, nonperishable food, clean water, etc.,. in case of emergency but how many people actually have those things?
When the X-bomb dropped many of the people I was working with at the time were pretty young career wise (25-30ish) and FCP Legend was the only NLE they knew. They used it in HS and/or college then got a job using it and when it got EOL’d suddenly they felt rudderless and like all the skills they had built up over the years were useless. Part of the problem is they weren’t differentiating their platform specific NLE knowledge from their non-platform specific editing knowledge and part of the problem is they never expected Apple to do what it did.
The constant change is one reason why I don’t buy into the ‘you’ll going to be renting Adobe CC for the rest of your life’ FUD. Rest of my life? I don’t know what will be my primary NLE in 3yrs let alone 30yrs. 2015 looks a lot different than 2010 and I expect 2020 to look even more different.
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[Aindreas Gallagher] “Corbynites have pretty thin skins.”
Damn maybe I should have been offended by that. I never knew I had a thick skin … but then I suppose how could I?
As for printing currency … well why not? If we do it to prop up banks then why not to prop up everyone else?
Once he’s dismantled the disproportionately large military machine and abandoned the nuclear deterrent, made Starbucks and Amazon pay their taxes they’ll be plenty to go round.
And we’ll all be able to afford to be editing in Smoke.
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[Tony West] “How much does any of this really matter when you think about it. Who thinks they will be working on the same program for the rest of their career anyway… I like X but something will come along years from now that I like better. Isn’t that just part of reality?”
Consider applications like Illustrator (1987), Photoshop (1990), Flame (1992), and After Effects (1993). These are tools you can build a career with. Ae is the youngest of these, and at 22, it’s old enough to buy itself a beer back home in Seattle.
All these tools have maintained a respectable baseline of continuous development. When you stop continuously adding features or re-working your architecture, you get more of a current Lightwave 3D (1990) than a current 3ds Max (1990). When you have a Lightwave, you are not far from having an Avid DS (1998-2013) or a Softimage (1988-2014).
Of course, things change. I think that if you’re doing exactly the same thing the same way today that you were doing 3 years ago, you’re already in trouble.
Historically, though, slowing application development is a leading indicator of impending change. This is not unique to Apple.
I’m not arguing that this is a reason to avoid FCPX. I think that’s a bit silly. FCPX a really compelling application. I’m just trying to explain why the pace of development carries the weight it does among people not committed to FCPX.
Walter Soyka
Designer & Mad Scientist at Keen Live [link]
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
@keenlive | RenderBreak [blog] | Profile [LinkedIn] -
[Andrew Kimery] ” I think a lot of people say they expect change to happen but they don’t prepare for change to happen. “
I know they don’t. I’m saying that’s their fault for not preparing for it. It’s not someone else’s fault you didn’t prepare.
[Andrew Kimery] “I was working with at the time were pretty young career wise (25-30ish) and FCP Legend was the only NLE they knew. “
Yes, I was that age once also Andrew. All I knew was timecode online editing when AVID came out.
I made adjustments to the reality so I could keep working. Many people tossing this line are a long way from 20 years old so you are reaching in the context of this forum : ))Young folks have it way better than I did when I was coming up. If you didn’t get in a post house or had money you couldn’t even get in the game.
Nobody helped you learn anything. You were their competition. Anything you learned outside of college you had to learn it on your own. Couldn’t just go online and watch people teach you the trade for FREE
No plug-ins to just drop in.Man up! Young folks
Stop making excuses for young people who don’t think change is coming and teach them that it is.
You are doing them a disservice.
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[Walter Soyka] “I’m not arguing that this is a reason to avoid FCPX. I think that’s a bit silly. FCPX a really compelling application. I’m just trying to explain why the pace of development carries the weight it does among people not committed to FCPX.”
Yes, I hear you Walter
1. folks were on here predicting that there was not going to be a new Mac Pro because of pace
2. I’m using X because it’s the best fit for me right now. I could go to Pr or AVID anytime I want to.
There is nothing stopping me from doing whatever I want.When the time comes when something fits my needs better I will just jump to that. It wouldn’t be that big of a deal to me.
If I’m cutting 10 years from now I “expect” to be on something different anyway. Don’t you?
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I think you are reading a lot into what I’ve said Tony. You seemed perplexed that people wouldn’t expect things to change so I was just providing a first hand account of co-workers getting blind sided by change, and why they most likely allowed it to happen.
I’m not doing anyone a disservice or blaming companies or making excuses or trying to have a context for this forum. I’m just telling you what I witnessed.
[Walter Soyka] “Consider applications like Illustrator (1987), Photoshop (1990), Flame (1992), and After Effects (1993). These are tools you can build a career with. Ae is the youngest of these, and at 22, it’s old enough to buy itself a beer back home in Seattle.”
Isn’t this more of a hindsight look though? I mean, how many programs that started in the early 90’s are still around and viable today? If we tried to pick which programs would still be around in 2035 would it be anymore than just guessing?
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[Andrew Kimery] “[Walter Soyka] “Consider applications like Illustrator (1987), Photoshop (1990), Flame (1992), and After Effects (1993). These are tools you can build a career with. Ae is the youngest of these, and at 22, it’s old enough to buy itself a beer back home in Seattle.”
Isn’t this more of a hindsight look though?”
History only works in hindsight, my friend. LOL
[Andrew Kimery] “If we tried to pick which programs would still be around in 2035 would it be anymore than just guessing?”
As the financial guys say, “Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.”
However, if we can’t learn from history, then we can’t learn from anything.
So what does history teach us?
Here’s an interesting game to play: whose applications are still vibrant 20+ years later?
We start with the ones Walter mentioned
- Illustrator
- Photoshop
- After Effects
I’ll add:
- Premiere (1991)
- Acrobat (1993)
To Flame, I’ll add
- 3D Studio Max (3D Studio: 1990, on DOS!!!)
And
- Avid/1 (1989)/Film Composer (1992 – and all of FC was rolled into MC in 1998…but even if we limit it to MC, we’re well past 20 years)
- Pro Tools (1989)
Media 100 (1994) is around, and much beloved (including by me), but that was after being dead, and even now, is hardly a Tier One player, which I think is all we’re talking about.
So who’m I missing?
Here’s the one thing we know: nothing from Apple on that list.
Mayyyybe if you count QuickTime, but as an application (which is what we’re talking about), hardly a major player.
The name that towers above the rest is Adobe. Plain and simple. Nobody in this industry is close. So I’ll bet you a real pony that ALL of the applications listed above are still around in 20 years.
I know that there are a lot of “sky is falling”-sayers re: Avid, but I ain’t buyin’ it. I concede that I’m not quite ready to bet a real pony…but I’m not quite NOT ready to bet a real pony either. They’ve weathered a lot, and as many, many others have observed, the arrival of OS X STRENGTHENED Avid’s position in its core markets (while admittedly doing not one damn thing to extend its core markets).
Since FCPX wasn’t around FIVE years ago, much less 20, it MAY be premature to count it out…so I won’t…but I wouldn’t bet even a hobby horse in favor of it. Other than QuickTime, there’s simply no precedent for ANYTHING from Apple lasting 20 years.
I remain intrigued by the notion of a 10 year plan for FCPX. How long did FCP last? Twelve years, tops. Yes, yes, you can call X a follow-on, but that’s sophistry at best, and really, if you’re being honest, quite simply wrong. Please don’t even start.
The iTunes face of QuickTime might seem like a shoe-in, but my feeling is that that’s the first to go. It’s a HIDEOUS way to manage devices, and I can’t imagine that Timmy C is going to tolerate it for much longer. It’s clearly not the future of Apple’s media delivery anymore.
So really, it’s insane to bet against Adobe still bringing engaging, growing software in 20 years. Absolute insanity.
I think it’s a mug’s game to bet against Avid. Are you a mug? Didn’t think so.
Or Autodesk for that matter. Killing Softimage was overdue. The only reason they bought it was because they bought it for coins they found behind sofa cushions…but Max? Unlikely.
Maya “only” came along 16 years ago, but absolutely not going anywhere. Another 20 is a shoe-in. As long as Autodesk provides OS updates, its extensibility will allow third-party developers to keep it vivid into eternity.
(Apple’s cannibalism, if not outright slaughter, of third parties is one of the things that bodes ill for the future of any of its applications.)
But really, the sure bets here are Adobe Photoshop, AE, Illustrator, and PDF, absolutely, with Dreamweaver and InDesign as overwhelming favorites.
FCPX, absolutely not. You may disagree, but nothing in history suggests even a remote possibility.
I do note that what’s interesting about this is that the notion of software surviving 20 years or more is quite new. It’s like the idea of rock stars performing into their 70s. Have you seen The Rolling Stones recently? Absolutely astonishing. There’s not a single one of you, NONE of you, in as good a physical condition as even Keith fgjk-ing Richards, much less Mick Jagger, and none of your voices is as strong. And dude easily runs 2 miles WHILE he’s singing. I’ve never seen anything like it.
Even though he said on his 25th birthday that he couldn’t imagine still doing it at 30. Now, I can’t imagine him NOT doing it at 75.
Bruce Springsteen at 65? A shoe-in for another 10 or more. Madonna at 56 is still selling more records than you know, and drawing the biggest concert crowds of her career. And again, none of you is as strong or fit as she is.
And Paul McCartney at 74, still delivering 40-song sets, two and a half hour shows with no intermission. Somebody recently asked him, “Don’t you want to sit down sometimes, 3ven just when you’re playing solo acoustic?” To which he replied, “Why the hell would I sit down? Besides, even if I thought I might like to, I simply can’t. I have too much energy when I perform.”
Examples abound, and not one of these folks thought they’d still be going this hard. (Okay, Madonna ALWAYS did. I think she’s planning to keep going til 100, and I’m keeping my ponies rather than bet against her.)
I think that’s where we are with software too. I don’t know that ANY developer imagined that they’d be developing the same software 20 years later. Their world was too new to have a clear picture of the future.
But based on history, I really do think that some bets are easy. Lots of Adobe apps, yes. FCPX, no. Take those to the bank.
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