Honestly NOT trying to trash broadcast TV… just reporting what I see on my newsfeeds these days…

[Michael Gissing]

If I was executive chairman of Google I would say the same thing. Doesn’t make it true. They clearly want YouTube to displace traditional broadcast delivery of entertainment and it is obvious to all that delivery of entertainment content via the web will be a clear winner over fixed cable or transmitted TV.

But to call the days of television as already over is premature. Even the article admits that in the UK, TV watching is way ahead of YouTube.

[Andrew Kimery]

Like the article says, YouTube viewership is measured in minutes per day while TV viewership is measured in hours. YouTube wants desperately to be more like traditional distribution because traditional distributors make money. Cat videos do not make money. YouTube’s overhead for being a global depository of video is huge (70hrs of new video is uploaded each minute) and only a small fraction of all the content they host can be meaningfully monetized. Hence the push for more premium and original content on YT. That push isn’t without pain either

Hulu, Neflix and even Amazon w/it’s streaming service are in better positions to expand delivery away from traditional outlets than YT, IMO.

[Rafael Amador]

A lot of fuss with the decline of broadcast TV.
Do you remember the song “Video Killed the Radio Star”?
That was 30 years ago and still waiting for the decease of the radio, industry that I think is healthier than ever.
Internet Killed the TV Star?
Lets see in 30 years time.
BTW, the fact that for people on his 20s, TV is not a priority shouldn’t amaze nobody. That has always been like that. The opposite would be sad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iwuy4hHO3YQ

rafael

[David Lawrence]

The other thing to remember besides the fact that a shift in distribution has been happening for nearly a decade is the fact that there will always be demand for highly produced, broadcast-quality entertainment. People will want to watch shows like Mad Men, Game of Thrones and Arrested Development any way they can.

Production and distribution are two entirely different things.

_______________________
David Lawrence
art~media~design~research
propaganda.com
publicmattersgroup.com
facebook.com/dlawrence
twitter.com/dhl

[Chris Harlan]

[Andrew Kimery] “Hulu, Neflix and even Amazon w/it’s streaming service are in better positions to expand delivery away from traditional outlets than YT, IMO.”

Agreed.

[Chris Harlan]

[Bill Davis] “Agree or disagree”

Frankly, I think it sounds more desperate than prophetic.

[Herb Sevush]

“Honestly NOT trying to trash broadcast TV… just reporting what I see on my newsfeeds these days…”

What you see is what you are looking for.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
—————————
nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf

[Craig Seeman]

Interesting points made by everyone. I think an issue is that it’s not really an “either, or” issue. Shifts don’t seem to be absolute except maybe over very long periods.

First we should differentiate between “broadcast” over the air and “cable” TV. Given Cable penetration, Broadcast over the air may well be in such decline as one might question the cost of transmission vs those not connected in any other fashion.

Another assumption is that adding one means of distribution has an almost equal decline in another. There’s a decline, but it’s far from equal. The numbers I see on “cord cutting” (Cable) is fairly low although certainly noticeable. Ironically some of the cord cutters do use Broadcast over the air since those a freely available.

Online distribution does have a number of advantages as well as disadvantages. Advantages are obviously one is no longer tied to a viewing schedule (appointment viewing). Much of the same content on Cable and Broadcast is available a short time later on line. Additionally when using Netflix and similar services on line, the “b” movies are pretty much the same ones shown on Broadcast/Cable. Additionally all this allows for varying degrees of social interaction with other viewers (and sometimes the creators) through comments and user ratings.

One disadvantage is the fragmentation online causes. It seems more severe than Cable. Cable offers packages of channels but, not all providers offer all channels. That’s more extreme in on line distribution. The viewer might get a bunch of TV programs, original content, older movies, on Netflix but it would seem a lot is missing. One could very well end up subscribing to Netflix, Hulu Plus, Amazon Prime, buy individual recent releases from iTunes. The result is that the user really does have to buy all the “packages” to get all the content (some of it duplicated across services) to get all the original content. The total bill to the viewer may have no cost advantage.

While I do think Broadcast over the air is in serious decline, Cable in a much milder decline, the result will still be a mix of distribution for some time (years) to come.

For many, a Cable package may still feel more inclusive for “one stop shopping” and, these days, offering more of their content online for VOD viewing without the “appointment.”

Least we forget there’s another related branch because the Cable services are also major Internet Service Providers and there’s still some flux in the economics around that.

The bigger issues is the battle over the “libraries” of content whether, original, licensed shows previously on Broadcast or Cable, older movies, new releases and, the ease of centralized access vs fragmented distribution as well as cost for the viewer. Cable will decline only to the extent where online distribution, with its fragmentation, is OK for a given viewer. It’s not a one for one swap.

[Chris Harlan]

[Craig Seeman] “Least we forget there’s another related branch because the Cable services are also major Internet Service Providers and there’s still some flux in the economics around that.
“

A key point that is almost always forgotten in the face-value version of this discussion.

[Bernard Newnham]

Our 60mBit internet connection comes courtesy of the fibre optic cable from Virgin. All of our services – phone, tv, internet come from them, so we’re a bit bound up with them these days.

I certainly watch a lot less real time tv these days, because of the Tivo box that’s also part of the service. YouTube is one of the channels, but I haven’t seen any of my family (19-66 ages) watching it too much, if at all. Unless YouTube feel like buying Suits or Spooks or whatever, I can’t see them taking over tv.

B

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5Y5j_Sdub8

Bernie

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