FCP X Six Months Later – Blog Post

[Craig Seeman]

[Chris Harlan] “Why Avid’s potential failure has become a mantra for you, I can only guess. But frankly, it is getting to be a little much.”

People keep talking about Apple the company so we should examine all the NLE companies. Apple has the resources to improve FCPX, market FCPX, better integrate the OS and hardware with FCPX. Of course I don’t claim having resources means they will succeed, but that’s a factor, just as Avid’s lack of resources is a factor. Let’s not exclude some factors but not others.

[Chris Harlan]

[Craig Seeman] “[Chris Harlan] “Why Avid’s potential failure has become a mantra for you, I can only guess. But frankly, it is getting to be a little much.”

People keep talking about Apple the company so we should examine all the NLE companies. Apple has the resources to improve FCPX, market FCPX, better integrate the OS and hardware with FCPX. Of course I don’t claim having resources means they will succeed, but that’s a factor, just as Avid’s lack of resources is a factor. Let’s not exclude some factors but not others.
“

I agree. But you are selectively responding to my post, and once again, making it sound like I’m saying something that I’m not. Since my previous post–taken in whole–is pretty much a direct response to what you are saying here, I’ll just use it again:

I don’t understand why you keep harping on Avid financials, post after post after post. Certainly, it is important information, but it is not–by any means–the only factor. And many people do not agree with your stark assessment. I know of no stock analyst recommending “sell.” All I have seen are recommendations of “Hold.” As far as layoffs, its tough times right now. A lot of companies are downsizing. And, I would remind you that a decade ago, Apple was downsizing too.

But hey–let’s look at it this way:

Here in LA, if Avid shut down tomorrow, and no one bought them, and no one bought Media Composer to resell, learning to use Media Composer would still be extremely valuable. I’m pretty certain that the infrastructure exists to support five more years of strong Avid use without any further development of the product. I’m guessing it is the same in New York and London. At this point–half a year after Final Cut X’s release–I have no idea if X will EVER be useful to most of this town, let alone within the next five years.

Why Avid’s potential failure has become a mantra for you, I can only guess. But frankly, it is getting to be a little much.

[Walter Soyka]

[Craig Seeman] “There’s no way that Avid after losing money for 5 straight years can keep going this way without either making a significant shift. Either they have a new compelling product, they reorganize, sell off parts or fold and sell off the company. Do you have a turnaround strategy in mind? I haven’t seen much of an attempt from them.”

Craig, you might be interested in this Avid press release [link].

I’m not suggesting Avid’s numbers are great (either absolutely, or YoY), but they might not be as bad as you’ve been suggesting, and this may indicate that they are headed in a good direction after all. The emphasis is mine:

The GAAP net loss for the third quarter of 2011 and 2010 included amortization of intangible assets, stock-based compensation, gain on asset sales, legal settlements and acquisition-related costs, restructuring charges, and related tax adjustments collectively totaling $8.4 million and $11.6 million, respectively. Excluding these items, the non-GAAP net income for the third quarter of 2011 was $385 thousand, or $0.01 per share, compared to non-GAAP net income of $1.6 million, or $0.04 per share, for the third quarter of 2010.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
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