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FCP-X: Case study for biz schools
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Now on that we can both agree Neil. The first day I was at NAB this year I was near the Sony booth when a guy walked by shooting with an ipad mounted on a shoulder rig with a giant you know what kind of grin on his face.
I swear to you Neil I was so disgusted I almost vomited right there. I then walked over to a quiet spot in the corner and booked a flight home to Chicago that same night…trust me I know how you feel about the future of this industry…
Chuck
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Another way of saying “We’re just trying to make great products” is “we don’t trust anyone else to know a great product if it bit them in the butt. At least not until we give we them what WE think is great, and then they agree.”
There are a bunch of measures of success, and to me, they largely fall into two buckets. One is the hardcore business side: profit/loss, market disruption, stockholder perception, etc.
On that level, everything that Apple has done is perfect. Even the antenna issues with iPhone 4 – irrelevant for more than a couple of weeks, and only among people who talk about such things, and most of that talk is to each other. Apple has made zero mistakes worth talking about for any length of time, and that deserves study on its own.
The part of the “market” that we’re talking about here is the customer side. The first issue there is, who’s the customer? The people using FCP now, or the customers Apple wants? What’s the horizon for their own measure of success?
Apple consistently releases products late, overpriced and underfeatured. It has happened from the beginning, when the Mac was the last computer on the planet still working in black and white. iPod was very nearly the last PMP to market, and to get there, Apple took features out of the software they bought from Casaday&Green (SoundJam) to turn into iTunes, and they’re still not back. We all remember how pathetic FCP was back in the day. Apple TV – still “a hobby,” but not going to be forever.
So at every step, they came in below customer expectations. Every one of those was an area of disappointment…ah, but…to use the iPod as an example. Sure, it sucked compared to almost the entire market when it came out, but it EXPLODED the market, so not even a single percentage point of the then-existing market gave a poo about its deficiencies. Didn’t even come up. iPod came to define the market.
(The one exception to this pattern: iPad. Cornering the market on components helped, but Apple is consistently underpricing itself relative to the competitive feature set. iPhone is already being outsold, and it will fall further behind to a Windows-style ecosystem from Google. Already well underway.
iPad? I don’t see that going anywhere. I have my wishlist for iPad 3, but looking at the leap from 1 to 2, I’m not looking at other pads as hard as I am other phones. I’m on my fourth iPhone in less than a year not because I love them so much, but because it keeps crapping out. Thank goodness for Apple Care. Don’t leave the Apple store without it.)
I’m going to skip the thing that everybody skips: Apple II was very nearly the best-selling computer on the market, and Apple dropped an atomic bomb on its customers. No hardware compatibility when they introduced Mac, ZERO software compatibility, and where Apple II was famous for openness, Apple welded the case shut.
System 6 to 7 – blew up the entire world again. Forced new hardware, new software, was the least stable OS EVER (if you weren’t there, you have no idea – a gazillion times worse than Vista), and a year later, nobody cared.
OS 9 to X – same story. OS 10.2, same story. A year later from each, nobody cared. In both cases, because the market grew so much faster afterward, and none of the new customers cared, and because by the time the of next release cycle, everything was fine.
Apple has always been willing to blow up its customer base in the service of creating a better customer experience.
The thing is, if Microsoft tried ANY of this, there’d be blood in the street to the horse’s bridle. There’s no company on earth who could have gotten away with this once — selling a product that the CEO stands on stage and TELLS you it’s not a real product? Well, it’s working for Apple TV, whose sales are still going up even though nobody can say exactly what it does.
We’ll know after the release of Lion (looking like September from here), but I think that FCPX will be another example of Apple being delighted to infuriate its customer base, and willing to lose a large number of them…whoops, it won’t lose a single one, not really, and they’ll gain a bazillion of them. It’s the price we pay for being current Apple customers, rather than future ones…because hey, we’ll be future customers soon enough.
I can’t say I’m happy about any of this, but I also can’t say that my wallet won’t be out for Lion, and who knows what else by the end of the year.
I spend as much time hating them as loving them, and the end result is that I keep buying their stuff.
Success.
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You make us sound like wives of an abusive husband.
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If you are an Apple Reseller, the abuse is endless.
Let’s assume, for the moment, that Apple also decides that its user base no longer needs PCI slots. Think about it, the next Mac Pro replacement is smaller, Apple is pushing Thunderbolt. When Apple moved from PCI-X to PCIe in the G5, they went cold turkey even though the chipset they used still supported PCI-X. Remember having to replace all those PCI cards? Wasn’t cheap was it. Do you think Apple cares about your existing investment? Does this become the final blow to Apple in professional graphics, editing, and effects?
So let’s review…
Apple starts with killing Xserve with no replacement, then kills FCS 3 (Soundtrack Pro, Color, DVD Studio Pro), Final Cut Server, not to mention Shake. Has anyone noticed that Apple Remote Desktop is looking pretty dead too? Apple won’t divulge their roadmap because businesses LOVE surprises. By the same token, I’m sure Apple avoids looking at their supplier’s roadmaps. I guess decisions are best made in a vacuum.
To be serious for a moment, my gut tells me that Apple is a victim of their own metrics. Before the iCrap, Apple had a profitable business with their core professional markets. In fact, Apple threw a lot of money at purchasing companies and their technologies to go after the Professional audio and video markets. Astarte, Nothing Real, Emagic, Macromedia (final cut only), Final Touch, and I know I am missing a couple. This was their core market. Then the iCrap started to really take off. Apple started to take away engineering resources from the Pro Apps.
In any event, Apple is making a ton of money on the iCrap which makes revenue from Pro Apps and the Mac Pro look like pocket change. Still profitable, but pocket change. I asked my brother about this situation about a month ago. He got his MBA from NYU. He’s no dummy. His retort was generally this…
Apple is a public company that seeks to maximize profits. I replied, “But Apple holds significant market share in certain vertical markets. Why kill it?” He says, “The other stuff makes more money. Every company has limited resources, even if they are the highest valued company on the NASDAQ. Thus, they are going to put those resources into areas they get the most value and return.”
He concluded, “Let’s face it. Apple isn’t really into you anymore.”
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[Mark Suszko] “You make us sound like wives of an abusive husband”
And some are finally realizing it.
As Jeff put it, the margin as a consumer electronics gadget company is so much better than the margin as a pro application development company that where this is going is easy to see.
Get ready for a new inundation of “cool kids” who have bucketloads of plugins and no storytelling sense whatsoever.
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The margin per product is actually better with Apple’s pro products. When it comes to their consumer products, how do they do it? Volume Volume Volume
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[Chuck Pullen] “That sounds like another case of welding the battery into case so you need to buy a new cell phone… I don’t mean to be critical, but I really don’t get why you guys put up with this stuff from Mac?”
I don’t know why we put up with it either, and have repeatedly mentioned not rewarding bad behavior.
Scott Sheriff
Director
https://www.sstdigitalmedia.comI have a system, it has stuff in it, and stuff hooked to it. I have a camera, it can record stuff. I read the manuals, and know how to use this stuff and lots of other stuff too.
You should be suitably impressed…“If you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur.” —Red Adair
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[Neil Hurwitz] “I’m sure it will
improve over time and don’t forget that most here don’t have a
clue what a CMX 3600 was and the next generation gunning for your
work won’t have a clue what FCP was, But they will sure know how to
sing with FCPX.”Well, while they are singing with iMovie Pro, they are not going to get my day rate for running the CMX, or anything close.
Check this out from LA Craigs:“We are seeking for a full time video editor to edit short segment video clips for our network of websites.
These are the requirements to apply and you must meet every single criteria:
– An expert in Final Cut Pro. We are looking to upgrade to FCP X…any knowledge of this would be very helpful.
– Be able to work in an extremely fast, high energy, fun environment.
– An expert in different video formats and the MAC OS X environment.
– Be able to edit on the fly, EXTREMELY fast when asked to turn around a job.
– Have general knowledge of celebrities.
– Work very organized and follow edit bay’s organizational system.
– You must be creative. We don’t want to spoon feed you when asking for a clip. You need to be able to understand on quick directions and turn the job around FAST.
– Our videos are very high energy and fast (average video is around 1 minute). Make sure you can cut a quick clip and not lose the audience.
– Have transportation to get to the office.
– Able to use teleprompter software.In order to apply, please submit your resume and a link to your reel.
* Location: Burbank, CA
* Compensation: $15 per hour”I think the neighbors kid makes more mowing lawns.
Scott Sheriff
Director
https://www.sstdigitalmedia.comI have a system, it has stuff in it, and stuff hooked to it. I have a camera, it can record stuff. I read the manuals, and know how to use this stuff and lots of other stuff too.
You should be suitably impressed…“If you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur.” —Red Adair
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[Mark Raudonis] “Success or failure? What say you?”
Failure. I referred to it as “the New Coke syndrome”
https://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/2710
Scott Sheriff
Director
https://www.sstdigitalmedia.comI have a system, it has stuff in it, and stuff hooked to it. I have a camera, it can record stuff. I read the manuals, and know how to use this stuff and lots of other stuff too.
You should be suitably impressed…“If you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur.” —Red Adair
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[Scott Sheriff]
“- Have general knowledge of celebrities.”
“* Compensation: $15 per hour””Sounds like TMZ is hiring!
Chuck
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