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Autodesk subscription model
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[Michael Gissing] “Fascinating that it’s a post about Autodesk and no-one is talking about Autodesk.”
It is about subscription based software.
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[andy patterson] “If I charge$1000.00 to build a website and my potential client find someone to do it for less I loose the business. “
But wait, FCPX costs less than CC in the long run. So is Adobe losing business to Apple in this model? Pure cost?
[andy patterson] “I do hope we see Adobe change it’s paradigm but it will not be because of anything I said or you said but because of the competition.”
For me, and probably many others, I use Pr (when forced to), PS, AE and some Illustrator. That’s it. I don’t need, nor want, the bloated CC package of, what, 15-20 some-odd softwares. So really I should be paying about $10 – $15/month for the five I want (maybe that is where you got your $14.99 number). If I need more, I pay more a la carte. But at $49/month I am being forced to pay for the development of software I will never use. At least in Avid-land, one can assume the monthly fee is going to something close to the core editing software.
Scott Witthaus
Owner, 1708 Inc./Editorial
Managing Partner, Low Country Creative LLC
Professor, VCU Brandcenter -
[Scott Witthaus] “[andy patterson] “If I charge$1000.00 to build a website and my potential client find someone to do it for less I loose the business. ”
But wait, FCPX costs less than CC in the long run. So is Adobe losing business to Apple in this model? Pure cost?”
There are a lot of Youtubers that use Macs that have ditched Premiere Pro in favor of FCPX. I don’t blame them. Cost is the only real factor for most the YouTubers since most of them could just use iMovie. I admit a post production house is not going to be as concerned about the cost as opposed to workflow paradigms.
[Scott Witthaus] “For me, and probably many others, I use Pr (when forced to), PS, AE and some Illustrator. That’s it. I don’t need, nor want, the bloated CC package of, what, 15-20 some-odd softwares. So really I should be paying about $10 – $15/month for the five I want (maybe that is where you got your $14.99 number). If I need more, I pay more a la carte. But at $49/month I am being forced to pay for the development of software I will never use. At least in Avid-land, one can assume the monthly fee is going to something close to the core editing software.”
That is my point. Adobe may loose some CC members to the competition. I like what I see from BMD. In fact BMD fulfilled my marker request. Adobe ignored it. I have heard Premiere’s new Essential Graphics Panel and Markers will get more features. I hope so because the updates from Adobe at NAB 2017 were kind of weak.
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[andy patterson] “There are a lot of Youtubers that use Macs that have ditched Premiere Pro in favor of FCPX. I don’t blame them. Cost is the only real factor for most the YouTubers since most of them could just use iMovie. “
I’d be surprised if that actually panned out in hard numbers. FWIW – my casual observation in the NAB press office this year of people cutting video reports for websites and blogs was 100% Premiere. As far as users who aren’t professional editors, my guess is that Resolve will win this battle. It’s super-easy to learn (outside of the color page) and free.
– Oliver
Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com -
[andy patterson] “DR and FCPX have to be part of the equation. I don’t just benchmark Adobe against Adobe nor should anyone else. BMD has upgraded DR a lot over the last two years. Some CC user might jump ship. “
I would agree that BMD and Resolve are the ones to watch. Grant runs a private company, so he’s not encumbered by the same financial rules that govern others. He’s also amassed a ton of software IP that he can freely use across product lines without the concern of paying licensing fees. He has a very aggressive attitude towards product development and a zeal to democratize, or at least an interest in sticking it to the (now other) big guys in the industry. Bolting in Fairlight within 6 months of buying the company is nothing short of phenomenal in terms of software and something I could never see Autodesk, Adobe, Avid, or Apple being able to accomplish.
That being said, I don’t see Resolve as a serious threat yet to FCPX, Media Composer, or Premiere. However, since I started this thread talking about Autodesk, I do see it as a major threat to Smoke/Flame, especially with the inclusion of Fusion. Bottom line, I think for Autodesk, is that this will kill their market for “lower end” software-based editing/compositing products and probably leave them to retreat back to the higher-end, hardware-accelerated effects/compositing market that is still willing to pay for that. The same position SAM is in with the Quantel products. Probably why Autodesk is now aggressively trying to move customers totally over to subscription. Especially for the 3D animation and CAD products, where they still have a stronghold.
– Oliver
Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com -
[Andrew Kimery] “For example, say I’m a publicly traded company and in January I sold you an NLE for $200, and then in May I released a free update adding multicam functionality. In the eyes of SOX I sold you an incomplete product in January and later delivered the ‘missing piece’ in May. So I’m not allowed to record a $200 sale in January, I can only record some of the revenue and I must defer the rest until the update comes out in May. And I can’t just defer an arbitrary amount until May, I have to figure out what a reasonable and customary amount for multicam functionality would be if it was sold as a standalone product on the open market.”
I know they are legality’s but that is not the issue. If you purchased CS 4.0 they would make minor updates with bugs fixes and a few new features. Same with CS 5.5 and CS 6.0.
[Andrew Kimery] “With how frequently software is updated these days I’m sure you can see impossible it would be to figure out the monetary value of each and every update for each and every piece of software. A way to avoid this is to charge for each and every update but consumers don’t really like that (I don’t know if you remember when Apple charged users for things like Facetime updates and iOS updates for iPod users).”
As I stated if you purchased CS 4.0 they would make minor updates with bugs fixes and a few new features. Same with CS 5.5 and CS 6.0.
Adobe could change the CC paradigm by stating if you subscribe to the CC for at least 3 years you can stop your monthly payment and still have access to the software but you will not get any more updates until you start paying again. As some have suggested Adobe could change the CC paradigm by offering any 5 programs for $19.99 or any 10 programs for $29.99. Competition will determine the fate of the CC. As I stated the CC is not super expensive but for video editing the competition is getting tougher and tougher and less expensive. For example BMD lowered the price for DR. I imagine BMD are still making money form DR. BMD and Adobe can make millions or billions depending on what they want to charge. Stating BMD sells hardware is a moot point because DR is competition for Premiere Pro. DR is getting better and better and also getting less expensive. The same cannot be said of the CC. Do you finally see my point about competition? $49.99 for the CC in another two years may seem expensive depending on where the competition is at.
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[Oliver Peters] “[andy patterson] “There are a lot of Youtubers that use Macs that have ditched Premiere Pro in favor of FCPX. I don’t blame them. Cost is the only real factor for most the YouTubers since most of them could just use iMovie. ”
I’d be surprised if that actually panned out in hard numbers. FWIW – my casual observation in the NAB press office this year of people cutting video reports for websites and blogs was 100% Premiere. As far as users who aren’t professional editors, my guess is that Resolve will win this battle. It’s super-easy to learn (outside of the color page) and free.”
You are proving my point because there are people on YouTube who have switched form Premiere Pro to DR (not a lot). If it was not for the CC subscription I imagine some of the people would have stuck with Premiere Pro although FCPX and DR are both good NLE.
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[andy patterson] “$49.99 for the CC in another two years may seem expensive depending on where the competition is at.”
Or when more people who use the “Adobe Big Five” realize they are paying for the development of software they will never use (the rest of the CC).
Scott Witthaus
Owner, 1708 Inc./Editorial
Managing Partner, Low Country Creative LLC
Professor, VCU Brandcenter -
[andy patterson] “Competition will determine the fate of the CC. As I stated the CC is not super expensive but for video editing the competition is getting tougher and tougher and less expensive. For example BMD lowered the price for DR. I imagine BMD are still making money form DR. BMD and Adobe can make millions or billions depending on what they want to charge. Stating BMD sells hardware is a moot point because DR is competition for Premiere Pro. DR is getting better and better and also getting less expensive. The same cannot be said of the CC. Do you finally see my point about competition? $49.99 for the CC in another two years may seem expensive depending on where the competition is at.”
Well, that’s kind of the point, Andy. How does a software company compete with a hardware company that can give its offerings away for little or nothing? Surely, not by lowering it’s prices! Subsidized software shields users from the true costs of development, so non-subsidized applications will always seem expensive by comparison. I have two roaming licenses for Resolve Studio, yet I haven’t paid a penny for either seat or any subsequent updates to the application… yet, I think $50.00 for a monthly CC subscription is completely fare, and to be honest, less expensive than I would expect it to be. I can certainly see where they could be more flexible in their subscription options, but come on… Adobe isn’t exactly Autodesk.
Lastly, and even further off-topic, I’m just waiting for Maxon to announce it’s great new subscription model OR its acquisition by Adobe or Autodesk. Perpetual licensing isn’t dead, but I think it’s on life support. ☺
Shawn
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[andy patterson] “As I stated if you purchased CS 4.0 they would make minor updates with bugs fixes and a few new features. Same with CS 5.5 and CS 6.0.”
What companies were able to get away with a decade or more ago is moot. Those infractions are now being caught (see my previous mention of Apple and Avid) so software companies have become much more mindful of the regulations.
[andy patterson] “Adobe could change the CC paradigm by stating if you subscribe to the CC for at least 3 years you can stop your monthly payment and still have access to the software but you will not get any more updates until you start paying again.”
I raised the exact same point years ago and got a good explanation from Tim Wilson about how that violates SOX. Basically a company is either offering software as a subscription service or selling software as a product, the two can’t intermingle. Hence why Avid offers two distinctly separate paths for Media Composer. There has also been discussion about why didn’t Adobe do the same thing as Avid did, but IMO that wouldn’t work for Adobe even though it works (clunky as it is) for Avid. Again, all this is retread from multiple, in-depth discussions in this forum and in the Adobe CC Debate forum.
[andy patterson] ” Stating BMD sells hardware is a moot point because DR is competition for Premiere Pro.”
It’s not moot from a money making perspective and companies have to make money to keep the lights on. Understanding the business model is required to understanding what options are viable and what aren’t for each company. It reminds me of people that use to say that Apple was doomed because all of their computers are too expensive compared to what Dell offers.
I think you are putting too much weight on price and not enough weight on value. If price was absolutely paramount then everyone would flock to Resolve and Media100 because they are free. For example, is $299 a more attractive price point than what I pay to Adobe and Avid? Yes, but for my needs Adobe and Avid represent a significantly better value so eschewing them for FCP X or Resolve based solely on price would be penny wise and pound foolish. Going back to Apple, they survived the race-to-the-bottom computer wars by because many customers viewed Apple’s products as a better value even if the price tag was higher.
[andy patterson] “Do you finally see my point about competition? $49.99 for the CC in another two years may seem expensive depending on where the competition is at.”
I always saw your point and continue to disagree with it. Your position is built on random price changes, baseless assumptions, and ignoring the changes in the software market that have helped shape the various business models that are in play today. You prefer the old software business model. I get. I generally preferred it too. I also preferred when gas was $0.75 a gallon and I could get a Coke and a bag of chips for a buck. Just because it was viable in the past doesn’t mean it’s still viable today.
By what metric is Adobe failing and in dire need of a change of course? Their revenue continues to grow. Their subscriber numbers continue to grow. Their stock price continues to hit record highs. Go back to the beginning of the Adobe CC Debate forum and you’ll see a bunch of people saying Adobe is doomed and they’ll never come close to hitting their subscriber and revenue goals… Obviously things turned out differently and that’s a big reason why the Adobe CC Debate forum has been a ghost town for months. When Adobe’s numbers start to level off they will have to take corrective action, but expecting them to drop their price by more than half when they having this much success is wishful thinking.
[andy patterson] ” If it was not for the CC subscription I imagine some of the people would have stuck with Premiere Pro although FCPX and DR are both good NLE.”
If it wasn’t for the subscription model they probably wouldn’t have been able to afford going with Adobe at all. $400 for FCP X, Motion and Compressor vs $1900 for the CS6 Production Premium bundle.
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