and finally……

[Mark Dobson]

Can’t argue with any if that – a good summary of the NLE state of play.

I’ve no desire to use Premiere Pro but having been opposed to the Adobe subscription model on principle I’ve now succumbed to the photographic offer, Photoshop + Lightroom for £7 per month based on paying an annual fee. It was irresistible and its great to have the latest version of photoshop sitting in my applications folder having struggled to use pixelmator to do any professional work.

What influenced me was Apples announcement that there would be no further development for Aperture so I decided to check out Lightroom and before I knew I had downloaded the trial and was hooked.

So if Apple announced that there would no further FCPX development . . . . .

[Neil Sadwelkar]

[Steve Connor] “FCPX, … is unlikely ever to reach the market size that FCP7 had”

Not too sure about that.

I would think, FCP X may not attain the same market size in the same market as FCP 7, possibly. But it might eventually outsell every other NLE but to a somewhat different market. And considering that every purchase of FCP X is good for use on 5 systems (mine is running on 3) there is likely to be a huge user base.

There’s a thread here earlier about them having sold a million copies of FCP X already.

———————————–
Neil Sadwelkar
neilsadwelkar.blogspot.com
twitter: fcpguru
FCP Editor, Edit systems consultant
Mumbai India

[Scott Witthaus]

[Steve Connor] “Avid – still the predominant NLE for Film and large areas of Broadcast, seems relatively untouched by the NLE wars”

I disagree here. Avid came out as the loser in the “FCP7 execution sweepstakes” by Apple and the opportunities that Adobe and Avid had immediately following. From where I sit, many more shops went to Premiere over Avid (actually all the shops I know that were on FCP7 and did switch went to Adobe). Avid continues to feel pressure on everything. Watch for X to continue to sneak into many smaller news station workflows.

[Steve Connor] “Premiere Pro CC 2014 – excellent software, amazing speed of development from Adobe and a natural successor to FCP7, only issue is the subscription model that many people don’t seem to like”

I add it’s crashes, interface, lack of speed with large file types, and general “plastic feel” can be added to my dislike list. Resolve 11 looks like a better successor going forward.

[Steve Connor] “FCP7 – still exists and still has a massive user base of people who still haven’t switched”

Yup. But “massive” seems a bit over the top. It’s a dead software that ain’t coming back. Legacy users, me being one, will have to delete the software sooner rather than later.

[Steve Connor] “but is unlikely ever to reach the market size that FCP7 had.”

I disagree here. IF (and that’s a big if) Apple continues to develop the product, I can see X easily surpassing FCP7’s user-base. Start at price alone. Then watch new editors learning it. Apple got it right, even if us old editors might not think so. They are closing the loop on content acquisition, creation and distribution. Maybe a 4k Apple camera one day? 😉

Tag, you’re it! 🙂

Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter

[Craig Shields]

[Scott Witthaus] “I add it’s crashes, interface, lack of speed with large file types, and general “plastic feel” can be added to my dislike list. Resolve 11 looks like a better successor going forward.”

What crashes? I don’t know of any speed issues either.

[Franz Bieberkopf]

[Steve Connor] “Anything to add?”

Steve,

Well, they’ve all been “improving steadily” and have “loyal and growing user bases”, so I wouldn’t single out FCPX for that. (There’s probably an argument that Premiere Pro has improved more and grown more.)

Avid’s financial uncertainty is probably also worth mentioning, as well as it’s embrace of both rental and perpetual license models.

Lightworks and now Resolve are still outliers. (… and other?).

But I think the big surprise is FCP 7 still alive and widespread in 2014. This is what “end of life” looks like. That really is something, and one would like to think that fact registers somewhere at Apple.

Franz.

[David Mathis]

I doubt that Apple will stop development of FCP X anytime soon. Perhaps when the next OS comes about there could be another large update. Just a guess really.

I refuse to go subscription only, so until Adobe changes course (not likely) Premiere Pro is not an option.

Until something else comes along, not being subscription only FCP X and Motion are the software of choice. Same goes with Resolve which I am considering as an alternative. Not sure about Lightworks as I have not given it a try. Might give it a look very soon. My two cents, whatever it is worth.

I am an avid user of FCP X!

[Marcus Moore]

I think the first thing we need to admit is that we don’t know what exactly the APERTURE to PHOTOS will mean, and I think we need to distinguish a difference between Apple EOL’ing APERTURE and walking away from the Pro photography market, cause they’re not necessarily the same thing.

It could be that Aperture as a brand, or a codebase, or a feature set were just too outdated- and a fresh start (like FCP X) was needed. Since they’re combining iPhoto and Aperture into a single app, a new name and brand was probably the best way to go.

It could well be hobbled, absolutely. Thankfully my photographic editing needs are pretty light. So I’m happy to wait on the sidelines until the product is released and see how the cards shake out.

[Marcus Moore]

I wonder what AVIDs growth looks like at this stage? As the most mature product in the most mature markets, I’d certainly expect their growth to be far less than FCP X or Pr.

With Larry Jordan recently mentioning that you can still buy FCP7 licenses, I think the really interesting point will be when we get to a MacOS release that DOESN’T support FCP7. When this happens, how Apple manages that message, and where FCP X’s feature set is at will be very important. It will certainly be the major motivator for which way all those customers will go when they finally migrate.

[Gary Huff]

[Marcus Moore] ” think we need to distinguish a difference between Apple EOL’ing APERTURE and walking away from the Pro photography market, cause they’re not necessarily the same thing.”

Completely agree.

[Gary Huff]

[Craig Shields] “What crashes? I don’t know of any speed issues either.”

Frankly, I have experienced more crashes and hang-ups with FCPX than with Premiere 2014 so far. On a nMBPr maxed out.