An image from last year that’s starting to feel prophetic

[Tony West]

I can’t see it Greg.

Just looking around my town, since X came out I know of about 10 people who have moved to it.

I know of about 5 or 6 people who say, they are going to get X but have not yet purchased it.

I know of about 3 to 4 people who have talked about moving to PPr from 7 but have not done that yet.
Still sitting on their 7

I know CS6 is coming out soon but I don’t hear anybody on the job talking about it. Maybe after NAB they will.

I know of 0 people in my town who have bought PPr in the last year. Not that they won’t in the future, I’m just talking about right now.

This forum, and what I see in my market are pretty different and I find that interesting.

Are people you know in your market buying more PPr’s than X’s ?

I got Lynda, so I checked the lessons on CS5. That UI looked clunky to me. I bet the new one will be much better. I didn’t like how it does titles over a still like that. I much prefer how X does it on the main canvas so I can see how it comes in over the video in realtime. I watched him drag that needle up and down the tmeline. I don’t miss that, or turning those tracks on and off.

The main thing I thought was strange was how basic the lesson was.

He explained what B-roll was, like he was aspecting a rank amateur to be watching.
The X lesson picks up like you know how to edit already.

I wonder why he felt the need to explain basic stuff to professional editors with that program.
He must figure that the product also has users who are beginners and not just “top end” editors.

[Steve Connor]

[Greg Andonian] “Even when CS6 arrives, Premiere Pro very likely won’t be ready to totally replace FCP7 just yet- but it really seems as though A LOT of people REALLY WANT IT to get there, and that makes me think it’s not a matter of IF, but WHEN- because judging by what we’ve seen so far, Adobe is definitely paying attention…”

There’s a huge weight of expectation on Adobe at the moment, they’ve been quick to exploit Apple’s problems with FCPX, I think we’re all keen to see what they have come up with in CS6.

Steve Connor
“FCPX Professional”
Adrenalin Television

[Walter Soyka]

[tony west] “This forum, and what I see in my market are pretty different and I find that interesting.”

That’s one of the things I like best about this forum — there’s a lot of diversity.

Most of the FCP folks I know personally are still working on FCP7 and waiting to see what NAB will bring. There seems to be a big sense of anticipation around CS6.

[tony west] “Are people you know in your market buying more PPr’s than X’s ?”

I don’t know what the sales numbers are, but someone is buying. From an Adobe press release last September [link]:

Demand for Adobe’s video content creation tools has exploded, growing 22 percent year-over-year with 45 percent growth on the Mac, fueled by the large number of Apple Final Cut Pro customers switching to Adobe Premiere® Pro.

I’d guess there are also quite a few folks like me who have had Premiere Pro licenses for years as part of the suite, but never launched the application until last summer.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog – What I’m thinking when my workstation’s thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events

[Rafael Amador]

[Steve Connor] “they’ve been quick to exploit Apple’s problems with FCPX,”
I guess you mean “..people problems with PP..”.
Apple doesn’t seems to have any problem with FCPX.
rafael

http://www.nagavideo.com

[Mitch Ives]

[tony west] “I wonder why he felt the need to explain basic stuff to professional editors with that program.
He must figure that the product also has users who are beginners and not just “top end” editors.”

To be fair the same can be said of a lot of training. I bought an FCPX series and the first four chapters were all “getting ready to get ready”. Each chapter seems designed for someone who knows nothing about NLE’s. There is a lot of chapters, but not enough depth. Some remedial things are over-explained while more complex things are under-explained.

So, it seems to be the norm when you’re trying to make a single product to fit everyone. When you try and please everyone you often end up pleasing no one…

Mitch Ives
Insight Productions Corp.

“Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things.” – Winston Churchill

[Gary Huff]

[Rafael Amador] “I guess you mean “..people problems with PP..”. Apple doesn’t seems to have any problem with FCPX.”

What?

[Rafael Amador]

Yeap. Correction:
“..people problems with FCPX..”. Apple doesn’t seems to have any problem with FCPX 🙂
Thanx for the “What?”
rafael

http://www.nagavideo.com

[Michael Gissing]

[tony west] “This forum, and what I see in my market are pretty different and I find that interesting.”

Indeed. I am sent projects from around Australia and so far no-one has asked if they can send a FCPX project. Most still use FCP7 and are waiting for CS6 before deciding on AVID or PP. Almost no-one is talking about using FCPX except to muck around with. Granted my area is broadcast post, so this forum varys like any market place and we tend to make judgements based on our small sample groups.

[Shawn Miller]

[Michael Gissing] “[tony west] “This forum, and what I see in my market are pretty different and I find that interesting.”

Indeed. I am sent projects from around Australia and so far no-one has asked if they can send a FCPX project. Most still use FCP7 and are waiting for CS6 before deciding on AVID or PP.”

FWIW, I’m seeing the same thing here in my little corner of Seattle, WA. ‘Bigger’ facilities that weren’t already Avid, are going from FCP7 to Avid with some consideration towards PP. Medium/smaller shops (PR/Ad agencies, in-house corporate video teams) and freelancers seem to be going half and half to Avid and PP, and freelancers I work with internationally (Asia and Europe), are seeming to favor Premiere. So far, I’ve only met two people who are using or considering FCPX.

Shawn

[Bret Williams]

I know of a camera man that thinks x is cool. Probably because it has lots of built in titles and fx and he doesn’t have to transcode his 7D material. Other than that , the high end corporate are going back to Avid or considering Premiere and/or keeping an eye on NAB and waiting. The boutiques that switched to FCP in the past are mostly going back to Avid. I’m a home freelancer for the most part. I already have Premiere CS5 with my suite. It’s not ready yet compared to FCP 7. Waiting for CS6 to see if it’s worth a damn or to go back to Acid after 10 years. But I may just have 3 suites in one for awhile.

I think Mountain Lion will kill FCP 7. Not on purpose, but just because they’re not taking it into consideration.