A personal note to all 3D TV pessimists

[Craig Seeman]

[Tim Wilson] “Don’t forget: there are approx. 200 million 3D-capable sets in people’s homes right now. Compare to the 1 million+ HD sets available at the launch of that format! “

And how does one know that number if they weren’t marketed as such?
I keep hearing about 3D capable HDTVs “coming to market” implying that previously sold sets are not 3D capable.

[Nick Griffin]

Do tell, Uncle Tim. What constitutes a 3D capable set. (And please tell me I already have one of them.)

[Herb Sevush]

DRW –

I guess I’m going to have to play the role of the Ludite at this party.

In 1954 Hitchcock made “Dial M for Murder” in 3D. At a special screening many years ago I saw the 3D print with glasses. At the key moment in the film there’s a lovely shot with a scissors going right out into the audience before ending up between the shoulder blades of the bad guy. Everyone in the audience loved it. But not so much that enough people wanted to wear the glasses to make it worth the distributors while. Which is why almost nobody today knows that this very much watched movie was ever released in 3D.

A few months ago I saw “Up” in 3D and while I liked the movie, most of the time I was annoyed with the glasses and 3d effect. I fail to see how movies like Juno, Precious, or Up In the Air will be much improved – and I think if an audience had a choice between a 2D “Terminator” or a 3D “The Abyss” Arnold would still be taking in all the money – what would 3d add to the moment when he says “I’ll Be Back”. The most memorable moments in movies are the human interactions that resonate – “I’m gonna make him an offer he can’t refuse” needs no other dimension.

I don’t doubt that 3D action films and sports shows will find a sizeable audience, but for me content is king and I’m quite happy to watch Red River in 3:4 Academy B&W.

For the most part I make PBS cooking shows and I can’t see the call for 3D here – hell, it took years before HD got a foothold and still today most cooking shows are still shot in SD. When someone asks for 3d I’ll be quite happy to learn and oblige, but I’m not holding my breath.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Craig Seeman]

I see nothing in any of the trades indicating 200 million 3D sets already in the market place.
Typically I see articles like this
https://www.thrfeed.com/2010/01/espn-launching-first-3d-television-network.html

In a conference call, executives from the 3D venture partners cited Consumer Electronics Assn. estimates that about 2.2 million 3D TV sets will be sold this year, with more than 25% of sets sold being 3D-enabled by 2013.

and

To watch the content, viewers must have a 3D-ready TV set, and might need a new set-top box.

So they’re looking at 3 years to hit 25% of sets sold being 3D enabled. I’m not quite sure if they mean total households at that point or only 25% of all sales by that year which would mean even a lower percentage of households total.

and there’s this too
https://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/447442-HDMI_Tackles_3D_TV.php

The HDMI Consortium also plans to include multiple broadcast 3D formats in an upcoming specification, version 1.4a, to ensure that HD sets and set-tops can display networks’ nascent 3D programming.

This indicates that a firmware upgrade to setup boxes can help though

Specifically, it decreed that set-tops with HDMI version 1.3 could receive a firmware upgrade that would enable them to connect to a new 3D set with HDMI version 1.4 to display a number of 3D HD broadcast formats. That is how satellite operators DirecTV and BSkyB plan to deliver 3D to their existing high-end set-tops.

That’s the only thing I can think of that might cause someone to claim 200 million if they’re all attached to set top boxes that can be upgraded.

All this looks to be “upcoming” and relating to newly manufactured TV sets.

[Grinner Hester]

There are no 3D pessimists, David. There will just a lways be those who call the world flat.
The first time I saw a true 3D screen was at the LATVfestival and it was awesome. I found myself relocating to different places in the room, as if it would change. No glasses. No special programming. Just a cool and obvious invention to enhance our art.

love it.

[David Roth weiss]

[Herb Sevush] “I guess I’m going to have to play the role of the Ludite at this party. “

Herb,

Since I know the bottom line on the PBS cooking shows, and it ain’t nearly what most imagine, it’s gonna be very hard for me to argue with you about the budget realities of creating 3D shows that are your bread and butter (that was a pun BTW).

However, if attracting an audience is what most of this business continues to be about, your employers had best start considering letting Jacques Pepin cook 3D lobsters, because I know that they will be doing so in kitchen stadium very soon.

BTW, Jacques sausage, broccolini, and cannellini bean ragout is simply one of the best dishes in my cooking arsenal. Girls simply love it when I cook it for them. That was one of your shows right?

David

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist
David Weiss Productions, Inc.
Los Angeles

POST-PRODUCTION WITHOUT THE USUAL INSANITY ™

A forum host of Creative COW’s Apple Final Cut Pro, Business & Marketing, Indie Film & Documentary, and Film History & Appreciations forums.

[Herb Sevush]

David –

About 10 years ago Jacques did a series with Julia Child and that’s when I worked with him. So, much as I’d like to, I can’t take any credit for your amorous success.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Chris Blair]

I have to side with Craig on this. Every single press release I’ve read while doing a quick Bing.com search implied that to watch the 3D programs that will be on ESPN 3D, Discovery and the other networks taking the plunge, you’d have to buy a new, 3D capable TV. There were even quotes from electronics industry CEO’s and technical VPs about how soon they could ramp up production.

I couldn’t find a thing about current televisions that were already capable of viewing the type of 3D that these networks are proposing to broadcast.

There must’ve been a two dozen different news articles, industry press releases and even a couple of “white papers” about the future of 3D, and all noted that it would require new television sets. There was no mention of firmware upgrades or adaptors or of any TV that’s currently capable of receiving the 3D signal that they’re proposing.

So I too would be interested in where this 200 million 3D capable TVs claim comes from. There are also articles about how expensive it is to do 3D production well, from all of these networks having to have 2 COMPLETE productiion crews and equipment, to the cost of the cameras and the cost of post etc.

Again…I think it will be a great technology with a place in the entertainment industry, but I cannot imagine that given the costs, in production, in that consumers have to shell out money for a new TV, and that local affiliates will have to invest to broadcast the 3D signals from networks…that it will achieve a high penetration anytime in this decade.

Like most discussions, the future is probably somewhere in the middle of the predictions of the enthusiasts and the pragmatists. I mean…look at the iPhone. It’s a fabulous device…but most current figures put iPhone worldwide sales at roughly 40 million, with projections from Apple of 80 million by 2012. And keep in mind, that’s not USERS…as one report estimated 40% of iPhone users have already upgraded from their old phone to a new one. Another report put nearly half of iPhone customers annual incomes at over $100,000.

Sure that’s a lot of phones, but there are 5 billion people in the idustrialized world and that’s a fraction of total phone sales and certainly suggests that a huge part of the potential market just cannot afford one. Now if people can’t afford an iPhone, how they gonna afford a big, honking new 3D TV?

Chris Blair
Magnetic Image, Inc.
Evansville, IN
http://www.videomi.com

[David Roth weiss]

[Herb Sevush] “much as I’d like to, I can’t take any credit for your amorous success”

Well that’s too bad, I was hoping you did do that one. In any case, Google the dish and try it sometime Herb. It’s all over the net, and man oh man, it’s just yummy. And, it only takes just ten minutes to make too…

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist
David Weiss Productions, Inc.
Los Angeles

POST-PRODUCTION WITHOUT THE USUAL INSANITY ™

A forum host of Creative COW’s Apple Final Cut Pro, Business & Marketing, Indie Film & Documentary, and Film History & Appreciations forums.

[Ron Lindeboom]

[David Roth Weiss] “the point I was trying to make is that the technology at it’s very highest level is so good that there will be no stopping it, and it will be implemented almost everywhere before you know it.”

As you know from the phone conversations that we have had on the subject, I am in 100% agreement with you here.

Me, I have to laugh at the people in this industry cheering against stereoscopic 3D. Why? It is one of the few things in the market now, which is actually HELPING maintain a disparity between working pros and those that aspire to be.

If HD had maintained this kind of distinction — one that I believe that stereoscopic 3D will hold for a few years to come — it would had given a differentiation to protect pros that lasted no time at all, in the case of HD.

[David Roth Weiss] “It’s no gimmick, it’s just a better way of viewing almost anything.”

Good way to describe it, David. Again, agreement in full here.

Best regards,

Ron Lindeboom
CEO, CreativeCOW.net

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