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8K at 60p, and the future of post?
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[Andrew Kimery] “I think HDD and SSD follow Moore’s law but SSD’s, being much new technology, just haven’t hit a cost per gig number that’s similar to HDDs yet.
“Its just not as straight forward as processing. of course hard drives get faster and gain capacity, but not as exponentially as processing.
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[Jeremy Garchow] “Even today, you can get a brand new season of a show on a streaming service, and churn through the material with breakneck speed.”
With regards to streaming series like House of Cards or Alpha House I don’t see them really rocking the boat from a production stand point. Each season is released a year apart and they are only 13 episode seasons.
[Jeremy Garchow] “The lines are blurred as to what constitutes “high end” because arguably, there isn’t one, or isn’t much of one, when it comes to equipment/hardware. In the average person’s eyes, “their cell phone can do it” or come close, then paying us professionals to do it in a professional way becomes a difficult sell.”
Hasn’t this been going on for a while (and will continue to go on)? The whole “My nephew has a flip camera and FCP on his iMac…” thing.
[Jeremy Garchow] “I’m not proposing that the Pablo 8k system is not high end, or that this is a “sky is falling” argument but rather a bit of a reality in the market of today, and certainly tomorrow.”
I like to look at the market, and our industry, as expanding from point A, to point B, to point C as opposed to moving from A to B to C. 100 years ago there was just film. Then there was film and broadcast TV. Then there was film, broadcast TV and cable TV. Then film, b’cast, cable and direct-to-video. Now ti’s film, b’cast, cable, direct-to-video, self-distribution via streaming (commercial content) and UGC (user generated content) via streaming.
Something like a Pablo 8k systems doing big budget, feature films and a web-cam recording a YouTuber giving makeup tips can co-exist because they serve different markets. For content creators the emergence of these new trends and distribution methods isn’t an either/or situation. If I was a content distributor I’d be worried about what’s going on though.
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[Andrew Kimery] “With regards to streaming series like House of Cards or Alpha House I don’t see them really rocking the boat from a production stand point. Each season is released a year apart and they are only 13 episode seasons.”
Which follows a very precise model. Looking at the world through my son’s eyes, this model may not be relevant for much longer. There will need to be more House of Cardziz, or a longer season, or shorter time between seasons, or…more content.
[Andrew Kimery] “Hasn’t this been going on for a while (and will continue to go on)? The whole “My nephew has a flip camera and FCP on his iMac…” thing. “
Yes it has, but the flip cams of the world are catching up with some features of the Phantom cams of the world. Some flip cams have more features than “professional” cameras. It’s not overwhelming, there’s still a huge difference between the best cell phone video and the best film/Digital Cinema, but who is noticing? And when do they notice?
[Andrew Kimery] “I like to look at the market, and our industry, as expanding from point A, to point B, to point C as opposed to moving from A to B to C. 100 years ago there was just film. Then there was film and broadcast TV. Then there was film, broadcast TV and cable TV. Then film, b’cast, cable and direct-to-video. Now ti’s film, b’cast, cable, direct-to-video, self-distribution via streaming (commercial content) and UGC (user generated content) via streaming.
Something like a Pablo 8k systems doing big budget, feature films and a web-cam recording a YouTuber giving makeup tips can co-exist because they serve different markets. For content creators the emergence of these new trends and distribution methods isn’t an either/or situation. If I was a content distributor I’d be worried about what’s going on though.”
I feel like today it’s not just moving to point C, there are times when it feels like we are jumping to point H. Media is absolutely everywhere. I went to game at the United Center (big sports/concert arena) a few weeks ago, and the building is essentially surrounded with moving image screens. The screens are broken up by the architecture of the building. Each one can run their own program, or they can combine and form one larger screen when the content is split across all of them. I feel like there are more opportunities for content to be played almost anywhere, but what is there to fill it?
And sure, 8k systems are fulfilling the highest end needs (I think, what the hell finishes in 8k, IMAX DI?), but how long is that going to last? Why would people go see an 8k movie? What is it going to offer on the same size screens that we have today? And as an advertiser, are you going to want to support a limited 8k viewing audience, or so you want to hit as many pockets of every device carrier that you can? Yes, YouTubers and 8k viewers are (potentially) different markets, and of course they can coexist, but will they?
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[Jeremy Garchow] “I look at where my little son is starting from in terms of content and technology. I watch how he interacts with it, how he chooses to watch it, where those choices come from, who is generating it, and why. He gets confused when I am talking on the phone, asks to “see” who I am talking to, and when I show him that there’s no video call, he literally doesn’t quite get it. He Facetimes his grandmas and even other friends, so to him, phone calls involve video.”
My son recently asked me was a jukebox was. I told him it was like a big iPod that restaurants used to have. If you wanted to listen to a certain song, you could put in a coin, select the song, and it would play for everyone in the restaurant.
He said, “Oh, OK.”
Then, after a little pause: “Pop, what’s an iPod?”
I knew the world looked different to him than it did to me, but prior to that conversation, I didn’t realize just how little our schema for understanding media really had in common.
A few months prior, we were driving on the highway and he asked to listen to some song or another. I told him I didn’t have it in the car. He told me very matter-of-factly that I could just download it.
One of my favorite “from the mouths of babes” story in media isn’t mine, but one I heard from a media executive somewhere along the line. His daughter was watching some Disney movie on Spinning Optical Disc, and a preview for The Little Mermaid came on. Upon seeing this, she complained, “Daddy, don’t they know we already have The Little Mermaid?”
Setting aside that latent, vaguely disturbing “them,” mass media today has become a touch-friendly, Big-Data-driven machine, geared for always-on, on-the-go, on-line, on-demand consumption.
Then again, mass media has always been as much of all that as the technology of the day would allow.
I thought I was too young to be a dinosaur (roar!) just yet, but gosh, isn’t that a lovely shooting star in the sky…
[Jeremy Garchow] “The lines are blurred as to what constitutes “high end” because arguably, there isn’t one, or isn’t much of one, when it comes to equipment/hardware. In the average person’s eyes, “their cell phone can do it” or come close, then paying us professionals to do it in a professional way becomes a difficult sell.”
I find that both the high end and everybody else tragically underestimate what the other group can accomplish.
I’m torn between the ideas that we are approaching the limits of human perception and that there is always room for improvement.
I wonder if the race to the bottom is real, and if it is, what will happen to advancement after we’ve killed off the pioneers making 8K finishing systems that cost as much as houses that maybe nobody even needs yet.
Gotta run, I think there are some kids playing on my lawn.
Walter Soyka
Designer & Mad Scientist at Keen Live [link]
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
@keenlive | RenderBreak [blog] | Profile [LinkedIn] -
[Walter Soyka] “Setting aside that latent, vaguely disturbing “them,” mass media today has become a touch-friendly, Big-Data-driven machine, geared for always-on, on-the-go, on-line, on-demand consumption.
Then again, mass media has always been as much of all that as the technology of the day would allow.”
It’s very true. Certainly, the internet has a little bit of a different infrastructure than terrestrial and satellite broadcast. Although, if certain lobbies get their certain ways, I think the *cough* ‘freedom’ of the internet will suddenly feel pretty claustrophobic. Not to get too politicky, but you know…it involves politics and I feel like the outcome will shape what kind of future our kids will have the chance in which to participate.*
Playing Captain Obvious here, but there is a huge amount of fragmentation at the moment. There is not a regimented programming schedule. TV Shows, movies, and other content can find second lives, or first lives, on time shifted streaming services. In the days of yesteryear, everyone was talking about who shot JR on the same day. It was so popular that (citing Wikipedia) “…a session of the Turkish parliament was suspended to allow legislators a chance to get home in time to view the conclusion of the cliffhanger.”
That doesn’t happen anymore. Now it’s like:
“Did you see? JR was shot!”
“No, I’m only on season 3.338, I still have 2.662 seasons to go.”
“Oh, wow … well … spoiler alert, they shot him! ”
Sure, as a content creator, you can find a lot more niche audiences today, but how do you find them, and will you find them in time to make more content?
[Walter Soyka] “I find that both the high end and everybody else tragically underestimate what the other group can accomplish.
I’m torn between the ideas that we are approaching the limits of human perception and that there is always room for improvement.”
Precisely. I have no doubt that a new experience can and will be “invented” that goes beyond another attempt at 3D and QQQHD**, and perhaps 8k (QQHD) will be the holy grail, and joins the smash hits of technology that finally allows 3D to make sense, but I imagine that taking advantage of programatic technology is going to be crucial more so than resolution. Personally, I don’t think it’s a race to the bottom. I do think that we are in the middle of a major shift in how content is created, delivered, and of course, valued. Right now, it’s rather large discovery mission, as well a search for longer lasting batteries.
I also think that bandwidth, at least in this country, is a huge controlling factor. Control the bandwidth, and you can control the content (and perhaps the innovation, for the better and probably for worse).
That shooting star sure is pretty!
*Sidenote: This is a fascinating documentary about patents, Ma Bell, and one guy who is too-smart-for-his-own-good:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcMw9gjB-p8
**After 3Q HD comes four-que HD! 😀
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[Jeremy Garchow] “I do think that we are in the middle of a major shift in how content is created, delivered, and of course, valued. Right now, it’s rather large discovery mission, as well a search for longer lasting batteries. “
Absolutely and, in a way, this is a good thing. It was never about the technology… it was always about the content. The girl giving fashion tips on YouTube from her iPhone camera with a million subscribers is providing compelling content for other girls her age. That’s all that matters. The fact that my iPhone shoots video as good as my $5000 Sony camera when displayed on a mobile device levels the playing field. Anyone who has the talent to provide the content can capture an audience. Technology enables this, but it is just a means to and end where the end is providing compelling content.
Even in ENG, large production pipelines are being replaced with reporters actually editing in the field and delivering ready-for-air content. The game is constantly changing and the rules are continually being redefined. Technology is certainly influencing the rules by what we can now do. The question is, what can we do with 4K or 8K that we can’t do now with HD? I know that HD content acquired from 4K looks better but there is no way to deliver 4K resolution and if you think people are going to buy new TV’s every 2 years as we move from 4K to 8K to 16K… think again. You have to ask yourself… How many pixels are enough?
I saw the new 4K monitors at NAB and yes they are absolutely gorgeous and no doubt it’s better than HD… but our kids are not watching 4K TV’s even if we had them. They are watching on their mobile devices which makes 4K delivery a “novelty” not the “norm”. For the average audience, 8K at 60p doesn’t matter.
~jr
http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com -
John, I think there’s an interesting contradiction in here, and I’d like to tease it out a bit.
I don’t mean to argue with you personally. I think we as a group here are discounting the importance of technology in this discussion (and while I’m at it, that we elevate technology sometimes beyond its real importance). More on that in a minute.
I’ve broken your comment up into two claims.
(1) It was never about the technology… it was always about the content. The girl giving fashion tips on YouTube from her iPhone camera with a million subscribers is providing compelling content for other girls her age. That’s all that matters.
(2) The fact that my iPhone shoots video as good as my $5000 Sony camera when displayed on a mobile device levels the playing field.
Statement (1) suggests by example that content (fashion tips on YouTube) is all-important — moreso than the technology (“That’s all that matters.”).
Statement (2) says that the “good enough” revolution has leveled the playing field — suggesting that it was not level before, and that perhaps technology does play a role after all.
If the content is all that matters, why do we feel the need to make statements like 2? Could you have a successful makeup tips channel with absolutely great content, but without a high-quality imaging system?
[John Rofrano] “It was never about the technology… it was always about the content. … Anyone who has the talent to provide the content can capture an audience. Technology enables this, but it is just a means to and end where the end is providing compelling content. “
I think that technology is creating entirely new media. New media means new rules, new tactics and strategies, new approaches to communication.
For a thought experiment, replace the YouTube/mobile technologies that Michelle Phan has so effectively used with her YouTube channel. What would Michelle Phan’s makeup tips look like with Spinning Optical Disc distribution? A touring live seminar? A glossy mailing? A book?
Here’s a challenge for the group: define the word “content” in such a way that it’s totally separate from its enabling technology.
One does not simply transplant content from one medium or technological basis to another. When we adapt books into movies, we don’t just throw the book on a rostrum and turn the pages. We let books be books and movies be movies. Technology is a fundamental part of content’s identity.
Book-to-movie is an extreme example, but surely 8mm film and 8K at 60p provide different experiences and merit different treatment, too. And 16mm. And 35mm. And 2K/24p. And 4K/48p.
[John Rofrano] “The question is, what can we do with 4K or 8K that we can’t do now with HD? I know that HD content acquired from 4K looks better but there is no way to deliver 4K resolution and if you think people are going to buy new TV’s every 2 years as we move from 4K to 8K to 16K… think again. You have to ask yourself… How many pixels are enough?”
I am biased in all this, because I work in large-format, where you can never have enough pixels. I’m currently trying to work out cost-effective ways to produce content for a raster that’s a little more than double 8K.
Looking at the home, I’d want to pause a little on the Hunt for RED Resolution and focus on increased bit depth and dynamic range, especially on the display side. I’m really sympathetic to the “limit of human perception” argument about ever-increasing resolution, but 1) nobody asked me, and 2) 4K on a 4K display still looks different than downscaled 4K on a 1080p display, so maybe we’re not actually at the perceptual limit yet.
You can deliver high-quality content outside of the broadcast infrastructure. You can buy a 5K iMac today, so there’s one device that 4K isn’t quite enough for.
But let me turn the question around. Rather than pointing to the work we’re doing now as a reason we don’t need technological advances, let’s think about we can do creatively with new technologies.
What stories can you tell with 8K at 60p better than you could tell with 2K at 24p?
Walter Soyka
Designer & Mad Scientist at Keen Live [link]
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
@keenlive | RenderBreak [blog] | Profile [LinkedIn] -
[Jeremy Garchow] “Control the bandwidth, and you can control the content”
Did you just sneak in a Dune reference?
[Jeremy Garchow] “Sure, as a content creator, you can find a lot more niche audiences today, but how do you find them, and will you find them in time to make more content?”
Question: how does this change the way we produce content? What new toolsets would be helpful?
Walter Soyka
Designer & Mad Scientist at Keen Live [link]
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
@keenlive | RenderBreak [blog] | Profile [LinkedIn] -
[Walter Soyka] “If the content is all that matters, why do we feel the need to make statements like 2? Could you have a successful makeup tips channel with absolutely great content, but without a high-quality imaging system?”
I would hate to answer “it depends” but you got me thinking… If I was showing how beautiful a product or results was, then technology does matter because it allows me to truly show off that beauty. If however, I was telling a great story like… oh… The Blair Witch Project… then technology really doesn’t matter… shaky handy-cam footage will do.
Let’s talk about the same content. Jeremy said that he just saw Interstellar and he loved it. “We are Explorers” was the theme. No doubt it looked a lot better than a 1966 Start Trek episode with the same theme but was it any more or less compelling? That is the real question. (I picked Start Trek because the stories were about the human condition) Did all of the technology used in Interstellar make it more immersive than 2001 A Space Odyssey and was it the imagery that made the difference?
I guess we could be having the same discussion on an audiophile forum. There are people who buy expensive audio hardware so that they can hear every nuance of the music, and then there are those of us who grew up buying something called “A Stereo HiFi” which was how everyone else experienced music back then, and now there is the MP3 generation which defines LowFi! At the end of the day, a good song, is a good song, regardless of what you play it on…. and a good movie is a good movie regardless of what you watch it on.
So I’m of the belief that technology only comes into play when what you are “seeing” is more important than what you are “feeling”.
[Walter Soyka] “But let me turn the question around. Rather than pointing to the work we’re doing now as a reason we don’t need technological advances, let’s think about we can do creatively with new technologies.”
That’s a good question. Clearly the invention of the Action Cam (e.g., GoPro, Replay XD, Contour, etc.) has massively changed how we develop content. They take us placed that we could never have gone to tell stories we may never had been able to tell. So that’s an example of technology sparking creativity. I’m not sure how 8K 60p is going to do that but I guess that’s the question you’re asking… where can 8K 60p take us? (…let me ponder)
~jr
http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com -
[John Rofrano] “Did all of the technology used in Interstellar make it more immersive than 2001 A Space Odyssey and was it the imagery that made the difference? “
Both Interstellar and 2001 used some of the best technology of their respective eras though. 2001 is a great story, but I doubt it would be the movie classic it is if it was shot in Kubrick’s basement on an 8mm Brownie camera with repurposed cardboard boxes for sets. 😉
[John Rofrano] ” I’m not sure how 8K 60p is going to do that but I guess that’s the question you’re asking… where can 8K 60p take us? (…let me ponder)”
An 8k image streamed to a 4k device could allow users to zoom in and reframe a video stream the same way they zoom in and reframe a digital picture. Match that with some sort of tracking technology and it would be a cool way for people watching sports to pick their own region of interest to watch. For example, they could stay with the default wide shot or adjust the image so they are all ways tracking their favorite player. I could see similar usefulness in educational and wildlife films. The camera guy captures a wide shot of the Serengeti and then the students get to pan/zoom around on their iPads to look at whatever they want.
I think I saw Sony (or someone) do a kinda similar demo where they had a stationary 4k camera shooting a soccer match on a wide shot and basically did a live pan and scan to an HD output to follow the action. The big difference is that with my example the user controls the reframing.
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