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Is P2 really going to make it?
Let me start this post off by saying that I am a dedicated fan of Panasonic products. I think that they have come so far in innovation and quality over the past few years. I have a rental house and have been investing in Panasonic cameras and monitors and have made quite a few believers out of the many, very conservative, ‘broadcast’ shooters.
This is where my concern begins. With all the success of the Varicam and HDX-900, Panasonic has developed a market with not only film-makers switching to HD, but also to the broadcast field which has always traditionally been a Sony market until now. This is a large percentage of my clientele. Now with the release of the HPX500 through the HPX3000, it seems that panasonic is pushing an unstable media to a market that is not ready for it.
What I mean by all this is that I don’t believe that everyone is ready to go tapeless. Even if that’s not the case, it is certainly not going to be P2 that will woo over the broadcast community. Now, I understand that P2 is well respected in the indie film-maker community and even with many owner-operators that shoot and edit their own footage. My point is that there is a much bigger market that Panasonic has established with their high end products and I am afraid that they are about to alienate them by prematurely pushing products like the HPX3000 (which I think technically seems incredible for the price). The HPX3000 effectively should be replacing the aging Varicam but instead will probably find itself not selling well.
One of the main reasons is that there is just something mentally and emotionally comforting with the tangibility of tape. It is also very much more economically effective. For under $20 I can purcase and shoot 30 mins on tape and pass the tape and the expense on to the client. It costs around $2000 for two 16 gig P2 cards to do the exact same thing. You can not just ‘hand off’ a P2 card to a client. Another issue is reliability. I know many of you will argue that P2 is reliable, and I will agree to a point. P2 is reliable but requires some education to know not to delete those crucial files during transfer. I have also seen several dead P2 cards come across my HVX200 over the past year.
Another issue that makes me worry about Panasonic’s future is Sony’s upcoming release of the HVR-Z7U which allows the shooter to shoot to tape (albeit that it is HDV) and to a standard CF card that is drastically cheaper than P2 and universally used and accepted. It is also available at your local Wal-Mart. I think that this camera will re-capture a lot of prosumer camera owners attention and shift the pendulum back to Sony.
To sum up I believe Panasonic is taking a needless gamble to push this P2 format prematurely. If all the R&D went into these cameras was used to really make a Varicam replacement (1080p with HPX3000 specs) that supported tape, I would be ready to buy right now, but for now I cannot affort to invest in P2 for the high end market.
I hope some of you will chime in and let me know what you think. Thanks for letting me vent.
Chad Hall
Nashville, TN -
35 Replies
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I think you are right about Sony having the cheaper card. It seems like it’s a no brainer. Or does it? The Sony format is not the same as Panasonic’s. There’s much more quality built in to P2 than there is in HDV or it’s tapeless equivalent. There was a recent string of announcements that Panasonic is going to partner with other companies to start releasing more P2 products for workflow and development.
https://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/105/858653
I think this is crucial to the success of p2. The workflow has to be in place, and since it’s tapeless it has many many advantages, but it is not without it’s shortcomings. P2 cards are not tape. They are an intermediary. That is the FIRST thing on the list of “getting to know P2”. You will not hand your p2 cards to anyone else at the end of the day, unless there’s a dramatic price shift. You will need a computer if you are going to shoot p2. Since the material is data after all, there’s no better tool for managing data than a computer. BUt this isn’t just inherent to P2, it’s inherent to tapeless in general. YOu can delete files really easily and workflow considerations are what people can’t seem to get their head around at first. Tape is proven and easy at this point. Tapeless is not as easy. It is going to take education and practice to get used to it, whether that be a Sony camera, a Red Camera or a Panasonic camera. SInce you provide a rental service, perhaps it is in your best interest to come up with rental situations that also educate about workflow. On the post side of things, there are now workflows in place that take advantage of the metadata that a tapeless workflow has to offer. This is nice for an editor type like me. At first, none of this stuff was available, but 3rd party products have made my life much easier, and it sounds like Panasonic is partnering with people to make their lives easier as well. They have the acquisition method down, now they have to start to deign the whole entire system, from acquisition to manipulation to archive.
Also, since P2 cards are relatively small in capacity, this makes managing media even more of a hassle. When P2 cards become larger (I am talking over 100 Gigs) you will be able to shoot and shoot and not have to worry about swapping cards every 10- 20 minutes and backing them up. At that point, you might be able to hand of over a card to the client because you won’t be so dependent on having 6 cards with you at all times.
Jeremy
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Er… I can understand why you have concerns, but I think you should check on what’s actually happening out there in the marketplace…
Is P2 going to “make it”? 80% of broadcast sales that are happening right now, are P2. There are over 60,000 units already installed. Major networks like Fox, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Sky News @ BSkyB, Nexstar, Cox, Media General, Raycom, etc. have all committed to use *exclusively* P2. There are over 610 broadcasters committed to the P2 format already. Overseas groups like Channel One Russia, Spain’s Canal4 and CNN+, Italy’s Teleacras, Germany’s public broadcaster Euskal Telebista and their national broadcaster ZDF, Belgium’s national public broadcaster ARD… the list goes on and on.
The BBC looked at available tapeless systems at the launch of their Starwinder project (to research which way they’d go; the BBC has committed to going tapeless by 2010). They looked at the optical disc XDCAM system, the Infinity, and the P2 system. They immediately ruled out XDCAM, wouldn’t even look at it; they instead put P2 and Infinity through a yearlong trial. They haven’t announced the “winner” yet, but there are two big clues: one, they’ve standardized all production at Factual Studios to be DVCPRO-HD, and two, they’re using Premiere Pro CS3 and Adobe rushed in P2 support to Premiere Pro so… handwriting’s all over the wall on that one, the BBC is going P2.
Consider that a lot of the hesitancy about P2 was based on card price (and rightly so; it was introduced at about $800 per gigabyte!) but that has now fallen to about $50/gigabyte and the 64GB card is due in about six months…
As far as whether P2 will “make it”, P2 is dominating, thoroughly dominating. Sony was the top dog in broadcast for years with BetaSP, but they lost that position when DVCPRO took about 75% of the news market. Right now P2’s taking 80% of the broadcast market.
Will it be such a hit with independent producers, freelancers etc? Well, there’s more room for competition there. But among broadcasters? The game’s not necessarily over, but it’s looking pretty sewn up.
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Barry,
Thank you for your insight. I appreciate your facts about the P2 market share and I have no reason to dispute those numbers with you. But I do see a hole that P2 will have a hard time filling.
You made a reference to how BetaSP dominated the market for so many years, but I believe that all these new formats are still very volatile right now. Perhaps 80% of sales are P2 right now but the winds can change at any time. With so many formats, acquisition options and technology increasing exponentially, it is still open season for new innovative ideas to recapture much of that 80% market share. P2 has some legitimate hurdles to overcome.
I personally believe P2’s success is attributed only to the fact that it is the best option currently available and, of course, everyone wants to hop aboard the latest and greatest. But some issues such as using the outdated PCMCIA structure that most computer manufacturers no longer support and the still high cost and limited storage capacity. Granted the later will change, but it leaves the door open for exploitation by companies like Sony.
I realize that I am probably approaching this subject with narrow blinders on since I deal day to day with a pretty specific market, and that is ENG freelancers who rent gear. But the truth is many shooters still ask for BetaSP because that’s what their clients want. P2 has just become another player in an already oversaturated market. All I’m saying is that I have a hard time putting my faith in P2 as it exists now. My optimism, however, does lie in the fact that video acquisition does have to go tapeless and flash media is by far the most logical option. I just think P2 is merely a stepping stone to get us to tomorrow’s BetaSP.
Chad Hall
Nashville, TN -
Chad four years ago, I purchased a Sony DXC35wsl slightly used one year old at 15k (new 22k). Have you seen todays used gear prices on used Betacam SP. It is dropping faster than the dollar against the Euro.. I am currently trying to finance a P2 and the prices, brand new with HD lens will not be much more than the used Sony was 4 years ago. For 3,600 I will update my Mac Lap top, for 700 bucks I will buy a Lacie Blue ray burner… No new tape drives for the edit room period,, nota one… Look at the facts bro.. I love Betacam, swear by it.. but the best bet is this time next year you will be giving away your used betacam gear for free. Or if you wait you might be able to purchase all the used Betacam SP gear you want for a dollar. Corporate video, Ma and Pa video will use betacam for another five years maybe. By 2015 you will be struggling to find a certified repair shop who has betacam SP parts…
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Edit,
I think you are missing my point here. No one is more ready to get rid of tape more than me. I completely agree with you in every aspect of what you are saying and for what you do there is no better option. Owner operators / editors would be crazy to not go for formats like P2. My concern is P2 for the long haul and what will be at NAB in April to compete with it.
In my rental house I stock the HDX900 because the Varicam has largely dominated in Nashville where I live and DVCPRO HD has become more a less a format of choice for most freelancers shooting HD. I have convinced clients of mine to use the firestore drives with the HDX900 because they can roll tape as a backup but get to experience the incredeible workflow that the firestore (or P2) offers. This has helped a lot of closed minded freelancers warm up to the idea of tapeless media which is something I try to push to many veteran shooters. However, even though the HPX3000 is exremely tempting to purchase, I don’t think I could rent it at all. For most freelancers, they need something to hand off to their client, which was one of my points in the first post. Also, the Varicam is the most rented camera in Nashville and I would think that in most big markets it is the same. But when people want 1920x1080p, the Varicam cannot deliver. What do they do?
By the way, my only point with BetaSP was that it was THE format for about 10 years and still widely used. The question that I am asking is is P2 really the format that will be the standard for the next 10 like BetaSP? I really don’t know but I will say this, I am glad that P2 is here and Panasonic is pushing this format. It is a gutsy move to completely drop tape and I hope it will pay off but I have to wonder if it’s a little premature. That’s all.
Chad Hall
Nashville, TN -
Lets be real here, shooters use digibeta because they own it and know it, their clients want it because the shooters are selling it to them. If they all owned P2 Hi-def cameras they wouldn’t be pitching digibeta shoots! How are they going to supply hi-def coverage/footage with digibeta? Do you really think they will retire rather than use new equipment? Everything is changing and its happening now.
Rent a Sony Camera – what will it be? HDV? XDCAMHD? HDCAM? HDCAMSR? D5? supply the client a DV tape or an XD disc or a HDCAM tape and then watch them rush out to spend $3000/10,000/100,000 (nz) on a deck to ingest and output it. I don’t think so. Shoot P2 to a hardrive for them, they know what it is, they own the hardware to use it and they know that it has DVCPRO/HD on it. How many HDCAM decks are in your immmediate area and how many laptops are in your immediate area?
P2 can be difficult to get your head around but how straightforward is the Sony situation? P2 cards are expensive but how cheap are the alternatives?
PCMCIA is being made out to be an older interface but it’s irrelevant, P2 cards are specialist equipment, hook one up to a expresscard slot with an adapter and it ingests twice as fast as a PCMCIA interface anyway, they were designed for higher speeds than a PCMICA bus offers. They are way over spec’d for the task, they are being written to at 100mbps but they can be written to at 200 or 300 in future.
Just my thoughts, hope it helped.
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[hallwaypd] “I hope it will pay off but I have to wonder if it’s a little premature. That’s all. “
There’s no time like the present. P2 is moving ahead and already on it’s second recording format.
We are going to get a new camera at some point soon to own, and I’d bet that there won’t be a tape mechanism. I am super curious to check out the 3000 and AVC-intra. 10bit, tapeless, full raster, all buzz words that appeal to me.
Once tapeless systems can make metadata management transparent and easy, you will see a mature format.
Jeremy
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I don’t think it’s premature anything. If we all waiting for ideal conditions for bleeding edge technology to fully “mature” we’d be probably be hiding under the couch shooting Hi8…
Noah
Unlock the secrets of the DVX100, Apple Color and now the HVX200!
https://www.callboxlive.com -
Has there been a time slip here or something? This whole thread is reminiscent of posts from 2 years ago prior to the release of the HVX200. (P2 had already been in use in SD ENG cameras for a year by then)
[hallwaypd] “My concern is P2 for the long haul and what will be at NAB in April to compete with it.
“[hallwaypd] “but it leaves the door open for exploitation by companies like Sony.
“True Sony has ruled the roost in the broadcast world with their 1″- “c” format of the 70’s and on to beta sp and the vx1000 was a ground shaker but they’ve had some dead end stuff too. They’ve got their fingers in too many pies if you ask me. They’ve been playing catch-up with the HDV products that JVC introduced and just now following Canon’s lead with interchangeable lens hdv cams. Now they are chasing Panny with card storage. Sony raided flash cards are similarly priced and the speed of the cards are not the bottleneck. We’ve all gotten around the interface issues and Panasonic remains true to form in supporting P2 with the amazing HPX3000.
If new holographic storage cards that transfer wirelessly to your laptop appear at the next NAB it won’t spell the end of the world for tapeless cameras. I have an old fuji S2pro digital still camera that came out just after SD memory cards were introduced. Up till then compact flash cards were the norm but what did fujinon do? They put an sd card slot in as well so the camera uses either CF or SD type cards. (incidentally, after 5 years I’ve never had a need to buy or use SD cards yet, the CF cards work well and prices are compatible) I’m sure future generations of video cameras could also adopt this form of compatibility as well. It would be simpler than building dockable cameras of yesteryear. Panny could have P2 slots and holographic cards slots in the HPX4000.
[hallwaypd] “The question that I am asking is is P2 really the format that will be the standard for the next 10 like BetaSP?”
BetaSP was a format, cameras ingested it and decks spit it out. P2 is not a format it is only media that stores many types of formats. A Panasonic HVX200 can record 81 different formats of video onto a P2 card. At this point AVC-I appears to be the BetaSP killer.
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Pom,
I have to respectifully desagree with you on your point that you can just shoot your footage and hand your client a hard drive. That sounds idealistic, but it is just not realistic. Unfortunately the freelancers don’t have the luxury of telling their clients what media they will be shooting on but it is the other way around. And we’re not talking about rogue clients here. People that rent from me shoot for NHL films, Fox Sports, HD Net and many others. They have a specific need and a solid infrastucture already in place to support that.
As far as costs, the cost on the front end has already been made by these companies because they already own HDCAM, DVCPRO and BetaSP decks in their edit suites. The want to fly a producer out to our market and have him return home with a tape. Now when this starts to change, and granted I believe it will eventurally, I will invest in whatever the market is asking for. But this sums up my whole point.. when it does change, is P2 what everyone will be asking for?
Chad Hall
Nashville, TN
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