Marcus Moore
Forum Replies Created
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I brought the previous article in for discussion- I’m the one who was able to have a civil discussion about its potential issues… and I’m the one who to took the initiate to go direct to the author of the original charts and get his very reasoned take on how it was put together and the margins for error.
You’re just being silly.
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How many years was PPro out in the wilderness for hobbyists and wedding videographers before it’s toolset was mature enough to tackle what it’s doing now?
If you’ve been in this business, you’ve seen enough cycles to know nothing is forever. Maybe Final Cut will miss out on a portion of the market for the next 2-3 years while the tool matures- but it’s only getting better, and they’re focusing on Pro improvements.
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No, I think that is an opinion.
Could the timeline be improved upon? Yes. Absolutely. Is it fundamentally broken? Absolutely not. Going back to FCP7 timeline is an absolute chore for me. 20 year editor, I LOVE this new paradigm.
I think the only real truth is that people like to work in different ways. One is no less professional than the other. The traditional timeline is certainly more mature, it’s been honed and refined since the 90s- Xs timeline has rough edges, but the core concept is one that I love using every day.
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Where is this coming from again?
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That would be an insane amount of time and resources to throw at something they’re not invested in, including building a wholesale new dedicated plant in the US to build them.
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As I’m prone to do in these situations I went to the source and talked with Horace Dediu (who provided the data that Alex used in his post) via twitter.
Apple only provides one number for the iTunes Software and Services (of which ProApps is part of)- how he has broken this apart into the different divisions is based mainly on public statements made by Apple. It is absolutely a “best guess” for a group for which Apple provides no specific data.
I provided him the “over 1 million” installs number provided by Apple in April- so that will probably factor in to new calculations next time around.
In his article, Alex rounded up, and said “approaching 2 billion”. Horace’s says his own chart info is $1.7 billion for past 12 months, but he admitted that number is probably too high.
Logic and Aperture are both strong sellers (frequently bouncing back and forth with FCP X on grossing and paid apps charts), and Logic is only $100 less than FCP X. Based on what articles we’ve seen about increased adoption, it would amaze me if more of the “over 1 million” weren’t sold in the last 12 months than the previous 12, or the 12 before that.
So let’s spitball for the last 12 months (and yes I’ll be generous)
500,000 FCPX = $150 mil
400,000 Logic = $80 mil
300,000 Aperture = $24 mil
150,000 Compressor = 7.5mil
150,000 Motion = 7.5milTOTAL: $269million
That’s a big spread, no argument from me.
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Apparently Franz and I can. In this case talking about where the data might be going wrong. But you’re right, of course… [insert eyes rolling]
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It’s called a discussion forum for some reason… Hmmmm.
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Until we get another number from Apple- when they cross 2 million maybe, we’ll have a better idea of the sales curve. Until then its unclear.
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This is a more recent report- and not the same info, though how Dediu breaks apart the iTunes number is presumably the same as from February. So your trepidation about the numbers might still stand.
Let’s not forget to incorporate growth into your yearly calcuation- if we only take the growth on the chart as true, then ProApps sales have basically doubled from the launch of X in 2011 to the first 3 months of 2014. On this chart from 250 mil in 2011 to just shy of 500 mil in the highest selling quarter this year.
While your avg of 300,000 per year is probably in the ballpark (if you assume Apple’s “over 1 million” from April to be something like 1.2-1.4 after this quarter), then we’d have to think they sold WAY more in the last year than they did in the first year. So FCP X unit sales for 2014 might be closer to 600,000, depending on what the sales curve looks like. Which would make 2014 FCP X revenue closer to $180 million.
I agree there’s still a disparity between that and 2 billion/yr.