Marcus Moore
Forum Replies Created
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I think it’s a good bet.
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[Mark Dobson] “”A lot of people were absolutely convinced that there was going to be a brand new Mac Pro back in June, some even said it was a done deal, but yes it was just speculation!””
Well, if you take it back to the source of that rumour. Which was an episode of Jim Dalrymple’s AMPLIFIED. Jim was asked if Apple was going to kill the MacPro. And Jim said, “No.”. Everything else was pile-on speculation. Jim never said anything was going to be released imminently, or even in the near future. Everyone, including myself assumed there would be a WWDC announcement. The good news out of that is we know for sure that there is a future replacement for the MacPro in the pipeline…
As far as FCPX is concerned, we have a lot more data to draw from. Here’s the basis for my update schedule predictions- release dates, days interval, and type of update:
10.0.0 – 2011.06.21
10.0.1 – 2011.09.20 91 DAYS – FEATURE
10.0.2 – 2011.11.16 57 DAYS – MAINTENANCE
10.0.3 – 2012.01.31 76 DAYS – FEATURE
10.0.4 – 2012.04.10 70 DAYS – MAINTENANCE
10.0.5 – 2012.06.11 62 DAYS – MAINTENANCE (Retina update tied to MBP)What can we parse from this? Avg release cycle 71 days (or 10 weeks), and updates with only 2 exceptions (one of those being tied to WWDC announcement) are pushed out on Tuesdays.
Until Apple breaks that pattern in a fundamental way we can only assume it will continue. And after 2 maintenance updates the best bet is on a feature release, with another maintenance update in Nov.
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[Mark Dobson] “”Apple dishing the dirt to Larry Jordan was pretty unusual but we will just have to wait and see whether we get everything they mentioned to him in the next update.””
Actually, Apple have been forthcoming on upcoming features since launch. Apple had a FAQ about upcoming features after 10.0 was released. And they pre-announced Broadcast Monitoring and Muticam on their website months before 10.0.3 was released. So the preNAB meeting with Larry was actually NOT unusual. If anything, FCPX is on the most regular, and open release schedule of anything they produce right now.
It is speculation, but informed speculation based on a year and a half of updates. When I started tracking FCPX update releases I never would have imagined that I would have been able to predict them so accurately…
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If their update schedule continues as it has done, we won’t see 10.1 until next June (with maybe a NAB preview). So it will be 2 years since the initial launch, and over a year since I moved the majority of my work over to the software. Work that I get paid for. Well.
$299 every 2 years is nothing for what I’m making off the software.
But it will be interesting to see how Apple handles a major update. Right now the MacAppStore has no software upgrade mechanism in place, so as of now there are only two options- either existing users pay nothing, or pay the full price again (which again I’d have no problem with).
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Based on their avg 70 day sched, we’ve only got 2 more updates coming this year- one this month and one in November. After 2 maintenance updates, I’m betting 10.0.6 will be the “2012” feature release for the rest of the year, and 10.0.7 another maintenance update.
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That would be me. The 21st is the closest Tuesday to that 70’ish day schedule they seem to be keeping. Though they have been one Tuesday either side of that on occasion. But they’re remarkably consistent (and predictable) for Apple.
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You might be right. Be interesting to see what tomorrow brings…
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Don’t forget ifixit has a vested stake in consumer repairable products. It’s their business!
I’m not saying their points are completely without merit, but they’re not unbiased either.
The Retina MPB is absolutely a less user-serviceable device. Whether that’s problematic for a majority of consumers is another thing entirely…
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Just like with the 10.0 launch and Lion last year, don’t expect any correlation between the launch of Mountain Lion and any FCPX update.
FCPX updates happen almost exclusively on Tuesdays (outside of the Retina update and one of the bug fixes). But there’s no telling if whatever they demo will be ready in a week, a couple weeks, or they might even say “This Summer”.
Keep your expectations low and you won’t be disappointed. But you might be pleasantly surprised.
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Since 10.0.4 was (like 10.0.5) really a bug fix update, you have to go back to 10.0.3 released February 1 if you’re looking for stuff to demo. That seems like really old features to be demoing for this crowd.