Franz Bieberkopf
Forum Replies Created
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[Thomas Frank] “Well that is easy to figure out it is the 2nd grossing App on the App Store that is one and it has been quoted There are now more Final Cut Pro X installs than Final Cut Pro 7 installs.”
Thomas,
If you’ve been following the threads here you’ll realize it isn’t easy to figure out. How many FCP7 installs are there? We don’t know. A couple years back Apple had announced 2 million installs on FCP but those include all versions and possibly Xpress too.
If you can calculate a real number or have other info please post.
[Thomas Frank] “LightWorks without the what $3000 Console is not worth it…”
That’s a pretty provocative statement; why do you make this claim? It’s just a customized interface is it not?
Franz.
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[Thomas Frank] “250000 downloads, doesn’t FCPX had more download”
Thomas,
Actually we have no numbers on how many downloads (paid or otherwise) there have been of FCPX. One estimate a few weeks back put the upper limit around the same number (250K).
[Thomas Frank] “Problem is you need the paid version to really work with it on a pro level.”
The yearly subscription is $60.00 – I suppose that might be a problem for some. It’s unclear what features this adds, but I think it’s only added codecs.
Franz.
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[Bill Davis] “Things with much bigger consequences like elections use the same methods to gather actionable intelligence and make plans.”
Bill,
Elections are actually decided on vastly larger polls.
You’re right though, analysts in run-ups to elections use much smaller samples. Sometimes they are close, sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wildly wrong.
But without knowing the methodology here, we can say nothing about how reliable any of their guesses are.
Further, the survey is divided into 6 markets – that’s an average sample of 300 per market.
Franz.
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[Craig Seeman] “52% of “something” in broadcast and professional facilities have FCPX installed.”
Craig,
It is murkier than that.
52% of new installs in some facilities (does that include free trials?). And it includes FCP7 last year.
Except that the 52% is a guess based on a small sample.
Franz.
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Craig, Philip,
I really can’t believe this fluff made it back onto the board here.
MYSTERY
I’m surprised that Philip would say he “understands the methodology – this seems to be a dubious claim to me along with the the claim that there’s a “detailed description” of it, so Philip you’ll have to spell out what you mean.
What we know:
– a survey of 1874 “end users” (another page claims 2500).
– by end-users they seem to mean “facilities” (“1874 facilities across all vertical markets” from the scope and methodology page); we don’t know what constitutes a “facility” but they talk up how they like to get responses from engineers.
– no mention of what Avid calls “creative enthusiasts”; they seem to be talking about “professional” users only.
– they project out from their surveys using statistical models to come up with an guestimate of the picture of 6 “vertical markets”. or something.So the final numbers are guesses – based on what “model”, we don’t know.
The 52% market share they claim is “new seats”, and only the “pro” market (not all NLE purchases) and does not include all FCPX installs – only installs in “facilities”; further it includes all Apple NLEs so it will include FCP 7 purchases for the period (the last 12 months?).
MARKETING
Anyway quite beyond all this – Apple marketing was faced with a choice between announcing real numbers of real downloads (sales and free trials, which they know) or “pointing to” a survey with vaguely decipherable statistical guesses.
Why would they go with the latter?
MARKET
On the SCRI site, amid all the factual and sparse news announcements of the last year, there is this weird post, essentially one long quote from one user on 2-pop:
https://scri.com/fcp-7-to-x-or-adobe-what-users-are-saying/The weirdness of that “news” aside, it gives us these quoted figures:
We know that as of NAB Show 2011 FCP had 54% of the market, PPro had only 19%, Avid trailed at 17%, and the remaining 10% were other NLEs (based on data from SCRI’s 2011-2012 NLE Broadcast / Pro Video Report, probably taken from the New York Times Article, “Apple’s Final Cut Is Dead. Long Live Final Cut.”)So firstly that gives a baseline of how they painted the picture last year.
According to SCRI, last year Apple had 54% of the market. (Note that on Philip’s page he says 55% but I’m not sure where that figure comes from.) This year they have 52%.
So Apple is losing market share.
I mean, personally I think we’re looking at coffee grounds here, but if these numbers mean anything then surely that is the real headline.
Franz.
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Chris,
This does not contradict anything I’ve said.
I tried to find out as much as I could about that report and the people who produced it (without actually buying it).
As far as I could determine, that report is based on a survey – not actual sales or downloads or installs (since, no doubt that number includes free trial downloads of X).
If you have better information please share.
Franz.
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[Chris Kenny] “… what we do know is that Apple has 52% of NLE market … new installs … “
Chris,
We don’t “know” that at all.
What we know is that Apple pointed to a report based on a survey that “suggests” something. (… and as Aindreas likes to point out, they did it in a secret Las Vegas hotel room meeting.)
One would assume that if actual sales numbers were impressive, Apple would publish them.
I think the current guess is somewhere on the lower end of 300K – 1000K.
Further, I have little idea of the scope, methodology, or factual basis of the survey. To start with, one assumes they are talking about U.S. markets. But who knows? Mysteries.
[Chris Kenny] “The real takeaway from this isn’t the specific number, it’s the illustration that number provides of how out of touch a lot of the discussions here are.”
I find much of the discussion here very much in touch with specific needs – often they aren’t my needs and they may not represent “wider world of editing” (whatever that is) but they do represent pretty concrete things.
If you can find information on the “wider world of editing” I wouldn’t be the only one here interested in your findings – this forum is a great place to share.
Franz.
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This seems to be the report that Apple “pointed out” (though, of course, no way to confirm):
https://scri.com/sc_reprt/sc_bpvm_2007nles.shtml
1500.00 for the report. It starts like this:
“NLEs will continue to grow over the next three years, in spite of major technological changes that have left many high-end editors bereft, frustrated and storming out of the edit suite.”
Franz.
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[Chris Kenny] “These numbers validate that decision.”
Chris,
I don’t think any numbers have been given. It’s been said that “reports suggest”.
Would be interesting to see the report …
Franz.
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From the linked article:
“Additionally, Apple notes that there are now more editors working with FCP X that with Final Cut Pro 7.””
Are they claiming over 2 million downloads of X? … or maybe a million converts and a million hold outs.
I’m reading a claim of around a million at least in there. (On second thought, that assumes all of their previous “2 million users” claim were version 7 users, which is unlikely; so, less than a million)