Franz Bieberkopf
Forum Replies Created
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[Aindreas Gallagher] “… are the three million unseen FCPX bane men going to rise from the basement of editing …”
Aindreas,
You trust that number to much. You might as well make one up yourself.
Franz.
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… Jerry Hofmann then appended later:
I’m not familiar with Adobe’s latest stuff, …
Franz.
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[Bill Davis] “Even if only 1 percent of the editing pool will ever achieve mastery …”
Bill,
You’re assuming that the means to mastery scales with access to the tools. This is true if all it takes to master something is access.
No doubt there are more people editing now, maybe even more “good editors”, but from what I see there is no direct relationship.
[Bill Davis] “… increasingly, it’s not exclusively the finest players that get the hits.”
Was it ever thus? With some periods of rare, miraculous exceptions, I’ve always thought talent was incidental to distribution.
But two deeper points:
The music industry is an interesting parallel – by draing a parallel you suggest that as the means of production become more accessible and distribution becomes cheaper (or free), there will be smaller audiences willing to pay for production, and there will be more of a push for event-like productions to generate sales.
I’m not convinced film and video will go that way, but interested to hear why you think it might.
More importantly though, I do think you’re conflating production issues with distribution issues again.
Franz.
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[Bill Davis] “If all you’re selling is the ability to EDIT – you’re going to be in a world of hurt since that now describes hosts of people who aren’t skilled or professional in any way – but who can EDIT at a purely functional level.”
Bill,
I’m not sure what distinctions you’re making. There’s a difference between being able to edit and being able to edit well.
People come to me because of the quality of my work – my abilities, my sensibility, my reputation.
[Bill Davis] “Unfortunately the old standbys like “quality” or “reliability” or “professionalism” are also decreasing in value.”
This is utterly untrue to my experience. What I see more and more is a craving for quality, engagement, responsibility.
Franz.
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Tim,
Those interested may want to look beyond the SCRI headline as well.
https://ir.avid.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=696597
Franz.
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Walter,
Agreed – it’s of vague value (though I’d like to know, it doesn’t really impact on assessing the tool).
On the other hand it seems to have been a point of interest and speculation over the past months – Craig Seeman in particular has been interested and I think his numbers were used as a reference point for others. So far none of the comments here (including his) have addressed the 600K calculation from Dec, though it was arrived at with the same method.
Franz.
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Or, in summary, we don’t have any good estimate on the number of downloads / installs of FCPX.
Franz.
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Tim,
Thanks for joining in – your perspective may be just what is needed.
But where are you getting 2 million from?
My calculations (based on Craig’s method) are 134K.
I don’t think they’re right.
[Tim Wilson] “I saw an article from a paid app developer who said that it took a million-ish downloads to stay on top of the paid apps list …”
Link?
… also there is a second issue here which is sort of a subtext to the issue.
You are assuming that the App store rankings adhere to some sort of blind algorithm. It’s good to remember that the App Store is a marketing tool. It certainly uses the language of “blind ranking”, and maybe a large part of it is so. I’m not making the claim that Apple features its products in rankings without regard to numbers, I just don’t think anyone can make the claim they don’t. I haven’t found any such claim by Apple – I’ve asked before if anyone has read what Apple claims the rankings mean – perhaps part of development information that I don’t have.
Franz.
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[Craig Seeman] “Without knowing exact number one can plainly track trends.”
Craig,
Agreed. (Though, absent a known methodology, we don’t know what the trends express.)
This is quite another thing from calculting 600K.
Franz.
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[Chris Kenny] “There are many fields in which we have woefully incomplete knowledge, but nonetheless have been able to establish certain particular facts to a high degree of certainty. Physics still hasn’t figured out what gravity is, but we don’t stand around waffling over whether things will fall when we drop them.”
Chris,
I think you’re talking about articulating theories.
Scientists show their work and submit to peer review. It generally takes quite a bit of work before theories get accepted. You seem to be using this as a model for “establishing” a claim but the dictionary offers a simpler definition (probably more useful in this case):
to show something to be true by determining the facts
Franz.