David Lawrence
2
COW Coins
Forum Replies Created
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[Gary Huff] “Originally it was 6-months, now it’s a couple of more years, then what? “Wait a decade, it’ll happen.”
I’ve always said this is a long game. 2016 is based on Adobe’s publicly stated long-range targets.
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[Richard Herd] “Heard this a few times now. It doesn’t seem to square with the stock price (which opened the year 2014 at $58.06)? How, in your view, is this working out — the stock price continuing to rise and they’re losing revenue?”
Wall Street is a casino. Stock price often has nothing to do with revenue or profit. Look at Amazon for example – Wall Street’s been cutting them slack for years as they lose money:
I think the exact same thing is happening with Adobe right now. But I predict the difference is that Wall Street will be much less patient with Adobe. As soon as Wall Street decides Adobe’s subscription-only model is a bust, they’ll bail. We’ll have to wait a couple more years to see what happens but this is my prediction.
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[Gary Huff] “No, the argument is sound because it’s about not having enough money to not pay the monthly fee for Creative Cloud.
Are we really trying to argue that someone would have the money for their electricity and not have the $50 per month for the software?”
Wrong, Gary. Re-read @Craig Allen’s post:
[Craig Alan] “Really bad in Ed circles cause there is never a sure thing about funding or when or if it will be approved.”
He’s not talking about cost. He’s talking about how funds are approved and allocated in the department’s yearly budget. Typical accounting does not treat software like a utility; no matter what Adobe wants you to believe. It’s especially problematic in edu where budget for new software is never guaranteed year to year.
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[Gary Huff] “If you couldn’t pay the “software” rent, does that mean you also couldn’t pay the electricity? Can’t run your post house if your power is turned off.”
Weak argument. Accounting departments don’t consider software a utility.
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David Lawrence
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[Steve Connor] “So what if they don’t offer one? hard to believe they won’t but it’s certainly a possibility”
I figure Pr CS6 will work for me for at least two more years. By then it’ll be 2016 and the real CC numbers will be in. Even if Adobe hits their 2016 subscriber targets (a pretty steep bar IMHO), they’re still way behind in revenue. They can’t keep bleeding money forever. So once they the natural ceiling on subscriptions, how will they increase revenue?
1) They can raise prices on existing subscribers.
2) They can do fire sale give aways to try to lock in new subscribers.
3) They can try win back millions of customers like myself who refuse to rent software.Maybe they’ll do some combination of the above. I’m willing to wait and see. It’s absurdly easy for them to fix this once they decide they want to.
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David Lawrence
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[Steve Connor] “What if they don’t change the model just the cost?”
The problem is exit strategy, not cost. Tweaking the price isn’t enough.
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David Lawrence
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[Aindreas Gallagher] “He’s a premiere man. Actually are you still lawrence? 6 I find a bit annoying, although I’m a pretty basic editor really.”
Yep. I switched to Pr CS6 and haven’t looked back since.
[Aindreas Gallagher] “I have strong, strong CC urges. almost jonesing at this point.”
Me too! – it’s so good and so tempting. But I’d rather put up with the annoyances then pay rent to Adobe. Still waiting to hear about an exit strategy. Remember how they said they were working on “tweaks” to the rental plan to deal with our concerns? Still waiting…
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David Lawrence
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[Herb Sevush] “What are you editing with now ?”
Premiere Pro CS6. I really like Premiere Pro CC but I won’t rent my everyday tools.
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David Lawrence
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Not on my dock, but still in my applications folder. But with none of the supporting apps in the FCP Studio suite. No Compressor, Soundtrack pro or DVD Studio Pro.
Just FCP7 — there to open and XML export 10+ years of legacy projects when needed.
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David Lawrence
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[Oliver Peters] “It’s not that Projects have become Events, but rather that the Project is now a sequence file contained within a new Event. Projects are no longer a separate visible data file. Rather, they are hidden internal files within an Event file, same as master clips, compound clips, etc. “
Now all Apple has to do is start calling them “sequences” again and join the rest of the world. 😉
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David Lawrence
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