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What if there actually IS a new Mac Pro?
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[Walter Soyka] “I’m somewhat afraid that anything other than an EOL will just be more tea leaves to try to read.”
Always is, with them. My take is that an all new design represents significant effort, investment, and commitment while another rev to a 2003 design represents reluctance and indifference. Sure, an all-new box could be a flop and they’d kill it after one cycle, but it would take crappy sales to do that. And if the sales are that crappy, then there wasn’t a market for it anyway.
This is why I keep bringing up Windows 8. Microsoft is driving even harder than Apple away from the conventional desktop computing model, as the mass market is speaking loud and clear with shrinking PC sales next to exploding iPad sales. Fewer and fewer people need a conventional windowing environment to do what they need to do with a computer. How will Windows 8 play in the workstation market? Can you imagine trying to use Windows Server 2008 as a workstation? Does the workstation transform back into what it was in the 90s- a specialty box that you only use for a few limited purposes?
I find this all fascinating.
[Walter Soyka] “Perhaps the concern isn’t about the technical separation, but the ideological one: OS X must retain its philosophy of layered complexity, and must never inherit any of iOS’s locked-down design philosophy.”
iCloud is their bridge. Local for conventional filing, iCloud documents for the iOS filing model on the Mac.
Best,
Andy -
[Andrew Richards] ” Does the workstation transform back into what it was in the 90s- a specialty box that you only use for a few limited purposes?”
That’s my guess, with Linux the OS. I think this is going to happen for any serious computational work, not just media. For those who need to work on something more niche than spreadsheets or word processing, the days when we could piggy back on the cost savings of mass consumer markets is coming to an end.
Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf -
“How will Windows 8 play in the workstation market?”
I have co-workers currently running Windows 8 on Tablet and workstations. Metro only appears in the desktop environment when syncing between a Windows Phone or Tablet (both sets of co-workers are developers). I haven’t played with it yet, but early adopters are telling me that it isn’t very different from running applications in Windows 7.
“Can you imagine trying to use Windows Server 2008 as a workstation?”
Yes, I’ve done quite a bit of encoding and live streaming on a portable box running Windows Server 2008.
“Does the workstation transform back into what it was in the 90s- a specialty box that you only use for a few limited purposes?”
Isn’t that mostly what workstations are today? I only use my workstations for creative work (editing, compositing, 3D, etc.). Productivity tasks (email, document creation, web), are mostly done on a laptop or smartphone… are others working differently?
Shawn
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[Andrew Richards] “This is why I keep bringing up Windows 8. Microsoft is driving even harder than Apple away from the conventional desktop computing model, as the mass market is speaking loud and clear with shrinking PC sales next to exploding iPad sales.”
My take on Metro is that it’s more an attempt to get existing Windows developers writing for Windows 8 phones and tablets than an actual abandonment of the desktop as we know it. Basically, I think that Microsoft is looking to leverage their existing developer base to respond to the big threats from Apple with iOS and Google with Android. I think they are looking to extend their dominance on the desktop into the mobile market, not forsake the desktop for the mobile market.
On the subject of shrinking PC sales, I found the quote from this article [link] to be fascinating:
[Gartner analyst] Atwal said that the slowdown in sales principally came as consumers held off purchases. “Professional sales have been steady if not spectacular,” he said.
[Andrew Richards] “Fewer and fewer people need a conventional windowing environment to do what they need to do with a computer.”
Another swinging pendulum. Remember when every application stood alone and always ran full-screen?
[Andrew Richards] “How will Windows 8 play in the workstation market? Can you imagine trying to use Windows Server 2008 as a workstation? Does the workstation transform back into what it was in the 90s- a specialty box that you only use for a few limited purposes?”
Great questions. I’m just digging into the Windows 8 preview now to get a sense of how jarring the transition will be. I’m sure I’ll have some thoughts on that shortly.
I do think that workstations will be more like they were in the 1990s — in that people with highly specific needs will spend relatively big money for outsized performance on specific applications — but I don’t think it’s because the workstation itself will transform. From the 1990s to today, workstations became more like desktop PCs, and desktops became more like workstations. From here forward, I think workstations will continue, at least for a while, on their current trajectory, while desktop computing will shift substantially toward the trends we see in mobility: smaller, cheaper, simpler, and more connected.
That said, I don’t see desktop computing going away in the workplace anytime soon.
[Andrew Richards] “I find this all fascinating.”
Absolutely! Thanks for some very thought-provoking conversation.
Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog – What I’m thinking when my workstation’s thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events -
[Herb Sevush] “[Walter Soyka] ” for those on the fence, what would make you believe?”
A public statement defining their road-map with a timetable and a promise to publicly announce adjustments to the timetable as need be. I think Apple would be loath to go back on a public commitment. Short of that there’s nothing they can say or do that would inspire trust.
“This is where I am as well. But I’m fairly convinced that their head is in the post PC market to a degree that such a thing will not happen. I’m fully prepared to move back to the Wintel world, but the businesses and corporate Divisions around me are not. Nor are many of the editors I work with, many of whom are just starting to reemerge from the devastating one-two punch of labor unrest and bitter recession. So, here I am. Which is fine, too. For me, the platform decision is a lot more about coordinating with the needs of both clients and co-workers then it is about my specific needs.
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[Andrew Richards] “Apple chose to draw a very modern line in the sand for FCPX’s starting point,”
Key though is that Apple drew the line. With the OS update the Dual 800 was capable of running Leopard but obviously not to Apple’s satisfaction. I don’t remember where the exact line was but it was something like Dual 800 no but single 933 yes. With FCPX those with ATI 1900 were able to install but those with ATI 2600 were not.
It’s basically Apple, not just the technical limitation, that is the drawer of the line. While certainly they’re considering user experience, it’s one thing to not have something on the “supported” list and another to try to put a hard lock on the door as they did in the above cases and some might question where that line was drawn given the systems that did and did not work.
Basically Apple may decide that whatever is in a 2012 Mac may not be their idea of good user experience with whatever resources FCPX is using in 2015.
I certainly know there’d be similar arguments in the jailbreaking community with iOS devices. One reason to jailbreak is to enable features on previous generations that Apple locked out. One example is the use of the camera to record video which was locked out of an earlier iPhone but was enabled on the then current iPhone.
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[Herb Sevush] “Second and more importantly the current editors who love and use X for their paying jobs, people like Tony West and Bill Davis, don’t use a Mac Pro. Half of their argument for the wonderfulness of X is how well it performs on a MBP. I think X will have a larger market on the Ipad than it will ever have on a Mac Pro. Most of the market for workstations have been driven from the Apple camp like they were vermin. It’s been 8 months now and poor Jeremy, your Mac Pro demographic incarnate, who loves the entire X concept, is sounding more and more despondent because of how unstable X is. He’s being driven, unwillingly, into the arms of Adobe. “
Maybe Premiere, but not Adobe. After Effects is the video application that is the current longevity winner in my content creation career. It has been the constant through all the NLE’s.
So Adobe and I go, like, way back man.
Am I sounding despondent? What a bummer I must be! 😉
I’ve said all along that the one thing that would drive me away from FCPX is the absence of reliability.
So far, it has yet to prove reliability in my little corner of the world, that is not to say that I don’t like it.
The reason people are liking MBPs and iMacs is that in some cases the performance is actually better due to a more efficient architecture. Of course, a proper desktop refresh will then surpass the newer portable/iMac offerings.
If Apple came out with a new MacPro, would we buy some? Yes. Right away? Maybe not, but eventually, for sure, yes. ATTO seems like they might have some interesting Thunderbolt offerings as well.
Jeremy
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[Jonathan Ziegler] “Oh and yes, I really don’t like Windows. I think its funny that its called innovation when its still 2-3 years behind the Mac. When Microsoft switches to a UNIX/Linux kernel, I’ll consider using it again.”
I love the UNIXy underpinnings of OS X, too, but I had to chuckle reading that Windows is 2-3 years behind the Mac, juxtaposed with the request that they adopt a 40-year old system design…
In what ways do you consider Windows to be 2-3 years behind OS X? (I am asking, not arguing.)
Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog – What I’m thinking when my workstation’s thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events -
[Jeremy Garchow] “The reason people are liking MBPs and iMacs is that in some cases the performance is actually better due to a more efficient architecture. Of course, a proper desktop refresh will then surpass the newer portable/iMac offerings.
If Apple came out with a new MacPro, would we buy some? Yes. Right away? Maybe not, but eventually, for sure, yes. ATTO seems like they might have some interesting Thunderbolt offerings as well.
“Add to all of this, the new rumors of the demise of the Macbook Pros:
Apparently Kepler’s not working out, and so we’re looking at a bunch of Intel-only GPUs, and a 15″ Air looks to supplant the 15″ Macbook Pro. I feel like we’re in one of those adventure movies where the castle is coming down upon our heads.
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[Chris Harlan] “[Herb Sevush] “[Walter Soyka] ” for those on the fence, what would make you believe?”
A public statement defining their road-map with a timetable and a promise to publicly announce adjustments to the timetable as need be. I think Apple would be loath to go back on a public commitment. Short of that there’s nothing they can say or do that would inspire trust.
”This is where I am as well. But I’m fairly convinced that their head is in the post PC market to a degree that such a thing will not happen.”
That there is the crux of the biscuit. Other than a “we’re bringing back the features we torched” chat from the FCPX guys, Apple has never given roadmaps about anything, have they? Especially not for something that inarguably is outside their core business. iMacs, MacBooks, plenty close enough. Heavy metal cheese graters, no.
So Chris’s excellent point becomes the new question: will you buy a Mac without a roadmap?
My prediction, respectfully, is yes, you will. If you haven’t said “I’m through trusting you clowns” yet, then I don’t see how you’re not in for another turn of the crank. A year of shit-covered fans later, it’s going to take something a lot more than even a disappointing Mac Pro release to be the last straw for most people who are still in the “I haven’t decided yet” camp.
Or, is a weak-enough Mac Pro release (new processor, Thunderbolt, not much else) enough to give someone permission to do what they WANT to do anyway, which is to not bet your family’s well-being and your own sanity that Apple’s not going to core you at some point?
And hey, tip of the hat to anyone for whom the Apple is still shiny and FCPX is working great. Much love. It’s just that I’m getting a lot more insight from these two related threads about who’s on the edge, and what it looks like to them. This is worth knowing, ’cause Apple isn’t going to try to talk you down from it.
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