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Systems and Solutions? Just say no.
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Mark, It would certainly be interesting to engage in these conversations with Panasonic designers or market strategist, but I suspect that won’t happen.
It seems a large portion of what that game is about is indeed “market strategy”. There is a chess game going on with these guys and they always have to be careful about what they’re next move may be, because if the rest of the world knew the next move the competition could cut them off in some way. So for them to openly engage in the conversation could tip a hand somehow.
The introduction of those “limited life span” P2 cards was a very interesting insight into how “market strategies” have become very important to Panasonic. Can you imagine there were probably many high level meetings to determine how long should they allow these cards to work before they would “pull the plug” on its life span!
Consumers have always suspected manufacturers built into products (like cars and such) this designed “life span failure” concept in order to sell you the next one. But I don’t remember this practice ever being quite so blatant. These cards should last a lot longer in normal usage. Whether or not anybody will care about a 32gb P2 card 5 years from now is another question.
I suspect if the Panasonic folks read these blog’s (and they should) it makes them a bit nervous, because as one guy said to me recently it’s like calling out that the “Emperor has no clothes” and attempting to get a look behind the curtain of what these companies are thinking about (or what they should be thinking about). Panasonic has been all over these boards in helping the consumer work through technical issues (to they’re credit) but I’d guess Panasonic doesn’t much like seeing this particular conversation.
The problem (again) is the market is changing so fast and these big companies cant swing that fast. You need a few years to develop the next big move, then a year or so to design and tool up, get parts in the pipeline for repairs and service technicians up to speed, its very expensive. So then you need a few years of healthy sales to pay back on the design and build investment, and to then profit on top. This is all a total guestimate on my part. You can also look to the past at how long products lasted before the new model arrived as a rough gage to whats needed for a product cycle.
My question is… what if you make a huge bet (like this company has done with P2 products), and because of how fast things are changing it turns out it was a bad move? The cam-corder market is a “Transition Phase” and I don’t think anybody can tell us where the prevailing winds will be blowing 2-3-5 years from now. Given the product cycles needed for these big companies I’d guess that’s a HUGE issue, and challenge for them!
The big profits have always been in the 2/3” camera’s and the customers aren’t buying expensive camera’s right now (in big numbers) because I think we all understand these problems inherent in the current times. The small camera market is growing fast but the margins I’d guess are much tighter. The volumes have to be substantially higher to find the profits these big companies are used to. This (mini-cam) side of the market is getting much more competitive with DSLR’s coming on fast, Red’s Scarlet coming soon, and who knows what else coming to the growing mini camera market. Suffice to say, it will only get tougher for the big boys to grab a big share of that pie. They are not used to competitions coming from all angles. Also with mini-cams it’s a whole different market psychology (we are learning) and you really do have to keep up with the next guy, so faster product cycles decrease the profit margin on mini’s even more then the bigger cams.
Because of all these factors talked about in this thread, anybody who’s thinking about buying into these P2 Varicam’s better know where those jobs are going to come from to pay for it, because if you are thinking “Buy it, and the customer will come” …. may be in for a rude and expensive awakening!
Interesting times for sure.
Panasonic (if your listening), These large investments you’d like us to make (in 2/3″) need protection designed in (not like your new P2 cards with “Death” built in). Deliver us what works best for our investment, otherwise we wont buy. Flexibility is the key factor for some years to come. Keep thinking this word “Transition”, and design with this in mind.
Little cameras are another story, but if you want us to spend 30-50k on a full size camera, you need to figure out how to protect your customer FROM “planned obsolescence”…. not deliver it. This shift to a 21st century strategy will bring you to market dominance, otherwise…..
Many thanks to Red for shinning a powerful light on this issue!
Peace, ER
Erich Roland
http://www.dc-camera.com
HD camera rentals, Washington DC
(and Cameraman) -
P2 was designed for ENG. Quick ingest, fast turn around and inexpensive. ENG has been Panasonic’s core business for many years where they dominated with DVCPRO. At the end of the day, the Varicam is just a fancy ENG camera. Producers are willing to convert to a new work flow if the ends justify the means. The problem for Panasonic, the new P2 Varicams are neither innovative or ground breaking. 2/3″ video is dying in the commercial / high-end corporate world and doc shooters, and network TV folks still want tape. (Notice the HDX-900 is still in production). P2 works for some but not for all, hence it will not be ubiquitous like DVCPRO tape.
I don’t believe Panasonic Broadcast will build a big chip camera. The market is just too small for them. If cinema was so big, the Japanese manufactures would have built 35mm cameras years ago. There is a reason Panavision / Arri (and now RED) dominate the cinema industry. It’s only big enough for a few players. Sony has dipped their toe into the cinema world with the F35 and their partnership with Panavision, but at $350K each, you can see why the market is so small. Panasonic likes to sell products by the ship load.
Finally, as a freelancer I have become gun shy with Panasonic. I invested heavily into Varicams, only to see their value plummet with the introduction of the HDX-900. I am glad I did not put $65K down on a 3700 at its introduction! If Panasonic expects us to put down serious money for their products, they have to assure us they won’t turn around and undercut us with a new camera at half the price or discount the current product so drastically.
This is a great discussion. It sounds like we’re all in the same boat. Times are changing…. unfortunately I don’t think it going to get any easier. Beta SP anyone?
Christopher Bell
Cinematography
http://www.christopher-bell.com -
Chris, You put your finger on a few important points.
Our 2/3” cameras may be headed the way of the dodo bird. Not tomorrow or next week we have a lot of these cameras out there working, but I can picture the sales slowing dramatically in this market segment going forward because of the costs involved.
The growth spurt in 1/3 and 1/2” camera systems is easy to see, and clearly these mini-cams are here to stay. New production avenues have opened up because of the cost and size of these smaller/cheaper systems. Also important is they have robbed a large slice of market from 2/3”, and more will be lost in the future. It’s getting harder to distinguish the image quality between a well lit and shot Ex-3 camera, and a F900 (at least for television). So the question becomes who is going to spend 80-100k for a high-end F900 system (camera and lens) when 10k can get you pretty dang close? I personally don’t want to use these mini-cams but what if the clients don’t want to pay the costs because they cant see the difference?
Big screen and movies aside, at least for television we may be transitioning into a period where the gap between price and performance isn’t justified, where less clients will spend the (2/3” camera) bucks we used to because they don’t have to. Nobody should be surprised to see a lack of big sales where P2 Varicams are asking for 45-65 thousand dollars respectively when these little cameras look better everyday. XD-800 same problem, cost a ton and for what?
The other point I wanted to talk about is your comment that Panasonic wont build a big sensor camera because it’s a slim market. It is indeed slim in the “High End” F-35, Red, Phantom, etc, portion of the market, but the 35mm lens look has been steaming hot for a few years (at the low end of the market) and it’s what everybody and they’re brother wants these days. We’ve been achieving this look with adapters and its here now in 2600 dollar DSLR’s. So my question is since the big boys are loosing market fast in 2/3” when do they recognize the demand (for slim depth) and deliver this look to the masses at a lower price point? Or do the marketers control the roost, and put they’re foot down to the problem of cannibalizing they’re own more expensive products?
When money is tight (as it is these days) then we are figuring how to make it work with a 5d instead of renting the Red, etc. The market forces are moving everything cheaper because the cheap cameras can look great and big bucks are not necessarily required. These Japanese companies need to understand that the day of spending 50-60k (in the general market) may be over for ever, and get on board with cheaper more flexible camera systems, and deliver what the main stream are obviously clamoring towards. Whether they deliver us the cheaper big sensor/35mm lens system or not, we have the “aftermarket” products and competitor cameras to achieve this look already so we are working around the lack of desired products from Sony and Panasonic.
Red is delivering it for the most part. Flexibility… And camera “Obsolescence Insurance”. Red has the right combination of features at exactly the right point in time … amazing really! The Scarlet might just be the hot camera for the next few years…. If it shows up, and if it works smoothly.
Erich Roland
http://www.dc-camera.com
HD camera rentals, Washington DC
(and Cameraman) -
I agree with Erich. The HPX3700 trade-in program is going to skew the high end 2/3″ market for a long time to come–$30K will be the new price point limit going forward for high end 2/3″ cameras.
The market for large sensor or 35mm DOF is NOT small. RED ONE has sold very well–I’m pretty sure that their approx. 5,000 units compares very favorably to the HPX2700 and HPX3700 combined sales. The inexpensive 35mm DOF adapters in combination with SLR prime lenses and palmcorders had been very hot, probably slowing down due to RED and Canon 5D. Canon is coming out with a prosumer large sensor palmcorder, supposedly. Scarlett will definitely make an impact.
I bought a Letus Ultimate 35mm adapter last year at this time and it has been my most popular rental item. Many of my clients would rather use a low cost 35mm adapter in combination with an HD palmcorder than rent a 2/3″ HD camera with HD ENG zoom lens. Therefore I added an HPX170 and EX1 to our rental inventory. My HDX900 has not done quite as much volume this year compared to last year–partially due to the economy, but also due to the options above.
$60K 2/3″ cameras will indeed be a thing of the past. Proprietary memory media will also go the same way.
Jeff Regan
Shooting Star Video
http://www.ssv.com -
Ai Lads, The Camera Rebellion is on…I love the idea of modular…but more important would be cheap media that is somewhat archival….like SDHC or CF cards. If Convergent Design and AJA can make after market units that record data and store it on these cards, why, in the name of Sweet Jesus, can’t Panasonic take the cards/codec system of the HMC150 and stuff it in the rear ends of the HVX300, 500, 2000, 2700, 3000, and 3700. Oh, my goodness, …It would be ….Err…just like Betacam days….Cheap archival media shot with really great cameras that sit properly on your shoulder.
Sony, Sony, Sony….Remember, you came up with Betacam…Those were glorious days…Everybody in the entire video world used your equipment…Well, you could do that again, if you just came to your senses and put SDHC and CF card in “Anything you make”…EX1, EX3, EXDCam (keep your codec and get rid of those disks and SxS cards). I wonder how great the image from a SRW 9000 series camera head would look recorded onto a well made Sony CF card system…Red records to CF cards…Why not Sony? I’ll bet somewhere deep in the Sony research caverns are flash cards systems that will record stable, beautiful images from F23s and F35s right now. This thread is depressing because it shows our equipment “solutions” are in disarray. But it also shows that many Cinematographers are digging in their heels until the manufactures come up with what we need and want. That is a good sign. We are awaking from our dogmatic slumbers.
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