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Signs of the Apocalypse
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[Patrick Ortman] “Go Walter!”
[Walter Biscardi] “The big trend of the past few years has simply been the availability of the tools to a much wider audience. Anybody with a Mac laptop is a video editor with a very powerful suite of tools for $999.”
Walter, Ronald and I started lamenting this in 1998, when you could start doing DV with a Media 100 card for “only” $16,000 dollars, not counting the computer and drives. No software solution existed yet, and no laptops could do this yet…but it was a major collapse in even our cheap, one-man band markets.
A friend of mine knew that I was using Media 100, for which I had paid $30,000 three years earlier, saw how far the price had come down, and when his kid said he was interested in video, he offered him three choices for his high school graduation: a boat (this was Florida), a car, or a tricked out Media 100 system. The kid picked Media 100.
Of course, this was the wheel of karma. When we set up our shop for $100,000 all in — 1 computer, drives (I spent $15,000 for NINE GIGS), one BetaSP camera, one UVW-1800 deck (for my money, the thing that lit the fire on the NLE revolution: now we could actually DELIVER broadcast video), 2 computer and 1 broadcast monitor — and I could get away with $1500/day, this was a staggeringly low price that cratered my local market.
And to underscore Walter’s point about going for broke, we featured his story in an issue of the COW Magazine called “The Think Big Issue,” full of stories of people who risked bankruptcy to swing for the fences. I set up my first system by taking out a second mortgage, and it was scary as sh**, in the middle of what was considered the Golden Age.
re Bob: Ronald and I have known him for 15 years, and we were the people he used to rail against in 1995 — these people with cheapo $30,000 Media 100 cards and BetaSP/UVW gear who were taking big money away from the Avid/DigiBeta/BVW crowd.
He has also spoken on almost a weekly basis about how, if you don’t stay motivated to drive yourself into the ground learning EVERYTHING new, you’ll find yourself working at McDonalds, having been replaced by people working at McDonalds now.
And fwiw, Bob has changed his focus for the same reason Walter has: the old wells are drying up, if not completely dry. But there are new wells if you’re able to blow everything up and start over.
But this isn’t about Bob and Walter. I don’t mean to do anything but SUPPORT the observation that the signs of the apocalypse are all around us.
Just for grins, I reviewed my notes on the past 2,000 years of the usage of “apocalypse,” and they hold in common that ain’t none of this tribulation going away any time soon.
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This thread is a replay of the Avid L circa 2000
The bottom line here is that our business is based on Technology
and Talent. The historical price of technology used to be much
higher, Think 7500,000 for a 1″ room, 100,000 for an Avid 8000
in 1995, 35,000 for an Adrenaline in 2004, and now a tricked
out FCP room for maybe 10,000 or a Laptop for 3,000
As this cost of entry fell, Talented people that had limited access
could now jump in with a good mastercard. There is very little mark-up
available on your equipment investment now. This MARK-UP was always
a very very significant portion of the profits of this business.
Profits had nowhere to go but down. A good plumber or electrician
(protected by license requirements) working 40 hours a week is
going to do just as well as an “Editor” A high school Art Teacher
with a Masters and 10 years of teaching is going to do much better after considering the work hours, salary, bennifits and pension.
Lets face it we are now just digital slaves, there is no magic curtain we can hide behind.Now for a comment on what Walter and Bob have said:
Walter, just where did you think that increase in Georgia work came from? Thin Air? No, it was stolen by economic warfare by your state in the form of all sorts of tax breaks AT THE EXPENSE of other states and of other peoples jobs in those states.
So Tell Us
How much “Incentives” you received to build in Georgia?
How big was your suck at the public teat?
Do you feel good about knowing that Interstate Warfare
has hurt your fellow workers in other states?Bob, (My old friend from CMX and Quadra 950 days)
You are dead wrong on how MAGNO was started. Ralph Freidman started
the company in the 50’s as a sound shop for motion pictures.
He was a friend of my father and as a young teen (I’ve got a year on you)I remember going to his place and walking around rooms full of
magnasync dubbers doing sound mixes to 35mm projectors. He put in many many years before making any money, He was not rich and certainly did not give money to his kids to start MAGNO. He just died at an early age and his kids had the good sense not to kill the goose. He also had the good fortune to buy his building on 48th street when Times Square was a truly dangerous place and sell it to
to a hotel chain a few years later and make 10 million.
Way more then he ever made in the sound biz.The bottom line here is that this biz is turning into a comodity
There will be less & declining profit in it for all people below
the line forever. We are expendable. In not too many years video
editing skills will be considered a must have like reading and writing and simple math. Don’t think so? When was the last time you
saw an add for a “Wang Word Processor Operator”?????Neil Hurwitz
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David,
“This has been going on for several years now, and when pointed out here by many who recognized the changes early on, in almost every instance they were belittled and met by post after post from Walter and Bob telling them that everything in the world was just peachy.”I’ll go a step past that to say this began in broadcasting with the demise of the Quad machines, and the rise of U-Matic, 1″ and then Beta. In Denver, that was around the mid to late 80’s. By ’91 we had the last running Quad in Denver, and spent a lot of time bumping stuff to 1″ for clients that were slow to catch on.
The change was logarithmic, so many didn’t see it right away. We stood there like dinosaurs, watching the comet that was to kill us, stupid and happy. Unaware that many would be extinct in a few years.
But as soon as station management started seeing that you didn’t need to be an engineer to operate the new gear, staff size, hiring qualifications and new hire wages began to decline. And you saw a rush to purchase more and more ‘plug and play’ equipment, which was becoming cheaper every day.It reminds me of the ‘Bah Humbug’ Christmas episode of WKRP. The ghost of ‘Christmas Future’ shows Johnny the station run entirely by Herb sitting at some futuristic console. I think when we all saw that show back in the day we all laughed. How ridiculas, one guy running the whole station?
Now radio has gone completely beyond that, and there are TV stations (in top 20 markets) that run 24/7 with one or two people.Scott Sheriff
Director
SST Digital Media
https://www.sstdigitalmedia.com -
[Tim Wilson] “But this isn’t about Bob and Walter.”
Sure it is… and that was the main point of my earlier missive.
One need only go back in time to see the many times in past history when Walter has turned some poor Cow’s passionate plea for empathy into an opportunity to spout off about many new toys he’s recently purchased. And, ever since wiring Walter’s shop, Bob has become Walter’s wingman whenever someone takes offense and chooses to point that out.
As we’ve seen, there are those who applaud the self-promotion and lack of empathy that’s often exhibited here when doom and gloom are mentioned, but there are also who don’t, who would rather remain silent observers than get into such a discussion here.
Meanwhile, as Ron and I have discussed many times, we are all most likely facing “the new reality,” not just a temporary recession, depression, or simple setback. And, there will most likely be many Creative Cows tempted to bemoan their changing situations here on the Business & Marketing Forum, which is one of few places for people in our industry to both rant and to receive useful valuable and helpful advice for dealing with those rants. Personally, I am sympathetic to their pain, can certainly commiserate with them, and I am here to listen, to help, and to offer solutions whenever I can, and all without the need to tell them in the same breath about my new hardware purchases.
BTW, for anyone who’s interested, I did buy a terrific $35 app. yesterday that does a bang up job of transcoding pesky m2TS files to Quicktime files. However, I’ll review that in a more appropriate place on the Cow, hopefully leaving this thread for more bemoaning of the Apocalypse, more sympathy, and more solutions.
David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist
David Weiss Productions, Inc.
Los Angeles
https://www.drwfilms.comPOST-PRODUCTION WITHOUT THE USUAL INSANITY ™
A forum host of Creative COW’s Business & Marketing and Apple Final Cut Pro forums. Formerly host of the Apple Final Cut Basics, Indie Film & Documentary, and Film History & Appreciations forums.
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“The historical price of technology used to be much
higher, Think 7500,000 for a 1″ room, ”The room I learned online editing in cost our station a million bucks.
Datatron Vanguard edit controller, 3 M/E Grass 300, single channel ADO-original model no curve or sphere, Chyron IV with MGM- whopping 777 color palette 16 colors at a time, 4 Hitachi 1″ machines, Sony BVU 820 3/4, 2 cart machines (gpi) and a reel to reel (gpi) and two Hitachi studio cameras, since the edit room also doubled as the studio production control room.
At that time we still had 16mm film and Quad.“
Walter, just where did you think that increase in Georgia work came from? Thin Air? No, it was stolen by economic warfare by your state in the form of all sorts of tax breaks AT THE EXPENSE of other states and of other peoples jobs in those states.
So Tell Us
How much “Incentives” you received to build in Georgia?
How big was your suck at the public teat?
Do you feel good about knowing that Interstate Warfare
has hurt your fellow workers in other states?”I wouldn’t begrudge Walter (or any of the other big gun types) any of his work. This sort of thing has been going on since broadcasters lost their grip over the post production world and you started seeing the rise of the independent post houses. That is just how it is.
However, plenty of indy post houses with national clients and lots of awards have gone under. Producers get fired, budgets get cut, priorities change, new guys come along. The things that make you hot today, can make you a ‘has been’, or a target tomorrow. Guys like Walter need to get all they can, when they can, because things in this biz can change quickly. I don’t really see where the ‘big guns’ like Walter are really taking biz from the rest of us.
I think it is all the newbies and hacks that think they know it all because they can heap a gazilion plugins onto everything they do, shoot everything without the sticks, and then charge a hundred bucks for a 5 minute piece. IMHO that is who is hurting this biz, guys that don’t know what the term ‘production values’ means.Scott Sheriff
Director
SST Digital Media
https://www.sstdigitalmedia.com -
[Tim Wilson] “re Bob Zelin: … Ronald and I were [some of] the people he used to rail against in 1995 — with cheapo $30,000 Media 100 cards and BetaSP/UVW … taking big money away from the Avid/DigiBeta/BVW crowd. He has also spoken on almost a weekly basis about how, if you don’t stay motivated to drive yourself into the ground learning EVERYTHING new, you’ll find yourself working at McDonalds, having been replaced by people working at McDonalds now. Bob has changed his focus for the same reason Walter has: the old wells are drying up, if not completely dry. But there are new wells if you’re able to blow everything up and start over.”
This has been the one constant in this industry: a level of almost soul numbing change that demands a near constant redefining and repositioning of oneself.
I remember the first time I met Bob Zelin 15 years ago online in the Avid-L listserv. I was an enthusiastic Media 100 jockey and he was easily the most feared and one of the most respected men on Avid-L. Let’s be nice and say that in my first discourse with him, he taught me the true meaning of the words: “Oh God, please help me — what in the hell have I gotten myself into?” (He gave me my introductory initiation into what many here in the COW today refer to as being “Zelinized.”)
One thing I know about Bob is that he knows more about this industry in his little finger than I do in my whole body. And like many here, he sees how greatly the industry has changed. In the number of phone calls I have had with him over the years, it is clear to me that Bob is all too aware of the pace of staggering change in this market — and its affect on both who we are, and what we can charge our clients.
Oh, and he’s actually quite funny and much more calm and listening on the phone, than some of you might expect.
Many here also already know the story about how when he began coming here many years ago, Kathlyn called me into her office and said that I think we need to close a guy’s account who is telling people he’s going to come to their house and spank them and take their dog because they are too stupid to have one. I asked who it was. She showed me a thread and there — lo and behold — was Bob Zelin in the COW. I said excitedly: “Wow, Bob Zelin comes to the COW? Kathlyn, it’s working — the COW is becoming what I hoped it would one day be.”
She thought I was on crack or something. But today, like the vast majority here, when she sees Bob Zelin posts in a thread, they are some of the first she reads. You can tell because she is laughing in her office and when you ask why, she is quick to say something like: “Listen to this that Bob Zelin just said…”
Change: at least it’s constant.
Best regards,
Ronald Lindeboom
CEO, Creative COW LLC
Publisher, Creative COW MagazineCreativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.
“Incompetence has never prevented me from plunging in with enthusiasm.” – Woody Allen
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[Neil Hurwitz] “How much “Incentives” you received to build in Georgia?”
Zero. Tax incentives don’t apply to Post Production. We’re paying for the entire build out of our own pocket. Well we will be for the next 20 years anyway.
[Neil Hurwitz] “How big was your suck at the public teat?”
Zero. We have not benefited from the tax breaks at all because we don’t do any production that falls under the guidelines and as I said above, Post Production does not fall under the tax breaks. So even if were editing any of the films or TV shows that are shooting here, we would not benefit from that.
[Neil Hurwitz] “Do you feel good about knowing that Interstate Warfare
has hurt your fellow workers in other states?”This “interstate warfare” was initiated by the Georgia Production Partnership. An independent group of media production professionals from all over the state (of which I am a member) that approached the Georgia Congress with the tax incentive proposal. The incentive is 20% tax break for production work that qualifies and an additional 10% if they include the Georgia Production logo in the credits.
Any production group in any state of the country could have come up with the same initiative. The GPP saw this as an opportunity to make good of a bad economy to give producers and production companies a reason to come here to do production.
Now other states in the area like the Carolinas are following suit with their own incentives and the SouthEast at the moment is a hotbed of production.
Do I feel bad good people are not getting work in other states? Of course, who wants to hear about production companies shutting down. But at the same time, I made a choice to locate my company here in Georgia from the get-go because the cost of living is so incredibly cheap here compared to New York where I’m from, Connecticut where I used to work and of course California where I might want to visit but never live.
So was the work “stolen?” No, not really. Georgia just made it worthwhile for studios and productions to come here. We have incredibly talented people in this state and incredible locations all around for shooting. It’s no different than all the “runaway” production that was hightailing to Vancouver, Canada for the longest time because it’s cheaper to shoot up there. Now in some cases, it’s cheaper to shoot here.
Eventually enough other states will have the same incentives and production work will move around the country. Those in this state who have built up their companies solely to support the tax incentive productions will go bust while those who build a well rounded client base will survive.
Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media“Foul Water, Fiery Serpent” Winner, Best Documentary, LA Reel Film Festival.
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[Tim Wilson] “Of course, this was the wheel of karma. When we set up our shop for $100,000 all in — 1 computer, drives (I spent $15,000 for NINE GIGS), one BetaSP camera, one UVW-1800 deck (for my money, the thing that lit the fire on the NLE revolution: now we could actually DELIVER broadcast video), 2 computer and 1 broadcast monitor — and I could get away with $1500/day, this was a staggeringly low price that cratered my local market.”
See, Media 100 was my big saving grace in getting started in all of this. When I purchased my first one, I knew I could build four systems for the price of one Avid. I remember my boss in Connecticut specifying that I HAD to purchase Avids for our company and I asked her “why?” “Well why not?” Then I explained Media 100 and how not only was it cheaper, but had better codecs to boot.
We went with M100 and never looked back.
Now of course Final Cut Pro makes it so much cheaper than we ever imagined.
As for my attitude and all of that, just call me a glass half full kind of guy. We get one shot at this thing called life and I’m going to make the best of it, sink or swim.
If this fails, I’ll just go get a job as a short order cook….
Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media“Foul Water, Fiery Serpent” Winner, Best Documentary, LA Reel Film Festival.
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[Ronald Lindeboom] “One thing I know about Bob is that he knows more about this industry in his little finger than I do in my whole body. And like many here, he sees how greatly the industry has changed and in the number of phone calls I have had with him over the years, it is clear to me that Bob is all too aware of the pace of staggering change in this market and its affect on both who we are and what we can charge.”
What I love about Bob is he is involved with so many high end clients that he sees a lot of what works and doesn’t work. So he ends up giving me options and solutions I would never even think of.
The Ethernet based SAN is a perfect example. I thought I was going to be forced to spend boatloads on FibreChannel and then he tells me about this thing that actually works.
Without the Cow I never would have met the man and my business would definitely not be what it is without his continued expertise over the years.
Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media“Foul Water, Fiery Serpent” Winner, Best Documentary, LA Reel Film Festival.
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[David Roth Weiss] “One need only go back in time to see the many times in past history when Walter has turned some poor Cow’s passionate plea for empathy into an opportunity to spout off about many new toys he’s recently purchased. And, ever since wiring Walter’s shop, Bob has become Walter’s wingman whenever someone takes offense and chooses to point that out.”
Sorry if my positive take on situations doesn’t fit with your doom and gloom philosophy. And Bob is certainly not anyone’s wingman, although with that wild head of hair I’m thinking he can get up to some serious heights.
[David Roth Weiss] “hopefully leaving this thread for more bemoaning of the Apocalypse, more sympathy, and more solutions.”
See that’s the thing. If you want to moan, look for sympathy and cry “what now?” then you’re done.
Life is a self-fulfilling prophecy. You can complain about the situation you’re in, wonder why the old ways aren’t working, look for others who feel the same way as you do so you can all cry in your beer together. Have a nice moaning party and feel bad for each other.
Or, you can look at what’s going on around you, spot trends and adapt to what is going on. If you’re willing to adapt to changes, you have a fighting chance to survive. I simply refuse to complain when the entire business model I was planning to follow falls apart around me. I just create a new plan and keep supporting my clients and my production team the best way I know how.
Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative Media“Foul Water, Fiery Serpent” Winner, Best Documentary, LA Reel Film Festival.
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