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Philip Hodgetts | FCPX numbers | talk with Apple | SCRI numbers
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[Chris Kenny] “I’m virtually certain”
!? There’s a sworn affadavit.
Third-year engineering students, at least in my day, were subjected to a course called “Statistics and Probability” that helps to ground one in the arcane study of “reliability”. Usually the phrase “figures don’t lie, but liars can sure figure”. My worst subject but left a lasting impression.
Given the sample size of this forum, there are absolutely no grounds to base any decisions on the opinions expressed here — with a certainty accurate to 100%, 20 times out of 20. I was going to put down something like 98% 19/20, the way you would be any stochastic distribution (pseudo-random), but… to be blunt — irrelevant.
jPo
You mean “Old Ben”? Ben Kenobi?
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[Franz Bieberkopf] “I mean, personally I think we’re looking at coffee grounds here, but if these numbers mean anything then surely that is the real headline.”
Short of paying $1500 for the report, we are looking at coffee grounds. There’s a lot that’s not being clearly defined. 52% of “something” in broadcast and professional facilities have FCPX installed.
It may well be 52% of seats of it installed . . . along with another NLE of which the other NLE is the one being used day to day.
I keep getting anecdotal information that there are some high end facilities moving to it though. I suspect the total number of seats where FCPX is the predominantly used NLE is small but it is there and the numbers seem to be growing.
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[Craig Seeman] “52% of “something” in broadcast and professional facilities have FCPX installed.”
Craig,
It is murkier than that.
52% of new installs in some facilities (does that include free trials?). And it includes FCP7 last year.
Except that the 52% is a guess based on a small sample.
Franz.
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My gut says what most would.
There’s absolutely no defensible reason for any facility not to have it installed. The cost is trivial. (probably less than stocking the coffee service for the year) It represents what a dominant player in the NLE space has decided is the future of their pro editing trajectory. If they don’t use it as a primary app now, they can let their folks use it as and when it fits a gig while learning about the new interface and the alternative workflows it promotes.
Maybe some client will need them to go participate in a “set-side” edit where X on a laptop kicks butt for something not necessarily “suite centric.
The point is that it’s a great tool to have in any kit. Not the only tool. Not necessarily even the best tool for every circumstance. But a powerful, modern Video editing solution that fits well under certain circumstances.
In short, why wouldn’t any smart facility not want to have it available?
I own a big stereo. I own an IPod Nano. And I have an iPhone. They all play music really well.
I use the one that fits what I need to do. I don’t get caught thinking that the only “proper” way to listen to music is to light up the big family room amps. That was my thinking in my 20s. Not so much now.
FWIW.
“Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions.”-Justice O’Connor
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“Except that the 52% is a guess based on a small sample.”
In modern polling, that’s not really a small sample at all.
A sample size like that in the hands of a quality polling orgainization should certainly yield dependable results.
Things with much bigger consequences like elections use the same methods to gather actionable intelligence and make plans.
“Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions.”-Justice O’Connor
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[Bill Davis] “Things with much bigger consequences like elections use the same methods to gather actionable intelligence and make plans.”
Bill,
Elections are actually decided on vastly larger polls.
You’re right though, analysts in run-ups to elections use much smaller samples. Sometimes they are close, sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wildly wrong.
But without knowing the methodology here, we can say nothing about how reliable any of their guesses are.
Further, the survey is divided into 6 markets – that’s an average sample of 300 per market.
Franz.
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Not a small sample. Large enough to be very accurate.
https://scri.com/sc_reprt/sc_method.shtml -
The 52% number is new sales. As in not including upgrades and cross grades. So fcpx constitutes half of all full sales in a market where most people are upgrading or cross grading to avid or adobe.
The full license sale is a small sub sample of all sales figures. And sales doesn’t mean usage.
Or at least that’s what I’ve inferred.
online editor | colorist | VFX | BD author
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