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NAB, what would like to see?
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[Bob Zelin] “So my whining here is to say that we are a target of this concept, and professionals like Bill Davis are promoting their careers on “Elementary Schools” learning FCP-X so even the 10 year old can produce a lovely video that would be GOOD ENOUGH for most applications, except for possibly major feature films and network television shows. This is a very threatening concept. “
Here is some cheese with that whine: I think I heard the same thing when EMC and Avid came out, but that time it was from linear editors sitting in $750k suites. Then I heard it again when FCP Legacy got traction from Avid editors sitting in their $75k suites, and now we hear it again. The trick is just be better at it. There are more folks out there now who won’t accept “good enough” for their work than back the 90’s. Find them and be so damn good you get the work at rate. Just be better. Cost of the gear makes no difference nor does the age of the editor. If one of Bill’s students is a better cutter than I am, she/he should get the good work over me. Pretty simple.
Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter -
[Bill Davis] “The SEN content is being re-purposes as we speak into something new and vaguely FCP X related.”
SENoFCPX.
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[Andrew Kimery] “So does pretty much every job/profession though.”
Can you build a house from blueprints? Design a car? Lay pipeline? Improve the mixture for asphalt? Write a musical score?
There are plenty of jobs that not just anyone can do.
[Andrew Kimery] “If I had the time, inclination, and/or desire to do my own taxes I would but I don’t so I pay a pro to do them for me.”
Your personal taxes, yes. Could you be the accountant for a large corporation? Probably not. Plus, I could do my own taxes, but an accountant looks more official since I am 1099 and take a load of deductions. It’s more of a consideration as to whether I can do it or not. Plus, I want someone who lives and breathes the tax code like I do for production gear. Life’s too short to do that for more than 1-2 things.
[Andrew Kimery] “The Chicken Little Work Theory of Doom™ seems to be that once both the basic skills and the basic tools to do a job become ‘common’ then the opportunities to get paid to do that kind of work just go *poof* overnight but that’s just not the case.”
They won’t go “poof”. They will be severely constricted to the point where you almost will literally have to have a career handed off to you from the person before who is retiring.
[Andrew Kimery] “Change will happen and disruption will happen but that’s just the nature of the beast.”
On this I agree…it will happen regardless, but it pays to be aware and have a backup plan.
[Andrew Kimery] ” Some revenue avenues will dry up, others will still exist but maybe not in the same way and new ones will spring up places they didn’t used to be.”
I don’t think new ones will spring up. Think about VR. That’s really a dead end because, well, what exactly can you do? In VR, there are no angles, hardly any lighting (because you can turn around and see it), and what’s the point of setting up a VR shot where there is a “stage” in a certain angle, and if you turn around you break the spell because, well, that’s how they’re doing it! And the same goes for the production of it. It requires skill not, but not for long. Hell, there’s an app that will automatically stitch all the angles together for you. And when you’re in VR there’s no cutting involved, maybe motion graphics but that remains to be seen.
There is already too much content and we’re gearing up for a crash, just like the video game industry in 1983. Only difference is that we’ve not quite had this before because the barrier was too high and so content could survive. And I don’t foresee a rebound because that industry was just getting started and ours its on its way to a long plateau.
[Andrew Kimery] “With regards to talented young people… I’m not really worried about them for a few reasons. First, it’s motivation to not get complacent.”
Agreed.
[Andrew Kimery] “Second, if a 20yr old can one up me for a gig then I’m in the working the wrong gigs and/or I’ve become complacent.”
On this I would say, it’s only as soon as clients realize they can live with “good enough” over higher costs.
[Andrew Kimery] “They’ll either find a cushy 9-5 job, leave industry or leave LA. Every one that does that is one less competitor I have to worry about.”
But there are more coming. That’s the sound of thousands of stampeding feet you hear, each with a MacBook and a copy of X. Even Leonidas eventually was overwhelmed.
[Andrew Kimery] “more than the “we’re all gonna die!” Bob Zelin. ;)”
I think it’s better to know when it’s over than to spend your time adapting until the last penny is gone.
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Here’s a bit of broad perspective on it – at least good for a chuckle:
My granddad, viewing earth’s worn cogs,
Said things were going to the dogs;
His granddad in his house of logs,
Said things were going to the dogs;
His granddad in the Flemish bogs.
Said things were going to the dogs;
His granddad in his old skin togs,
Said things were going to the dogs;
There’s one thing that I have to state –
The dogs have had a good long wait.– anon.
Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com -
I love the dinosaur debate — I taught myself FCP 1 at ABC News when the union editors were negotiating themselves out of a career – I was a producer/correspondent – (they gave up everything computer based because they felt they only dealt with the heavy metal equipment — that didn’t work well for them)
I saw the future was producer editors – photographer editors — no one person does one job
When i began my own production company i networked with a group of like minded pros that once did just one job at the network level — we’re all still working and generating projects — the folks who insisted they’ll stay “specialized” for the most part had to find other careers
As for kids being able to edit circles around us with FCP X — call me when that happens — there’s been a dozen times that an in house corporate video client said – “we’re good – we have someone editing on FCP X now” ..and then came back after the botched, mediocre, lousy edit and said “can you fix this?” It cost them twice as much than if they’d just let a professional do it once.
It isn’t the NLE – its the experience and creativity of the person on the keyboard — and you better stay 3 steps ahead of the game, teach yourself new skills (Motion graphics for someone else? Nope – start learning) Those are the rare pros that don’t seem to ever want for work.
Andy Field
FieldVision Productions
N. Bethesda, Maryland 20852 -
[Bob Zelin] ” it is my personal opinion that Apple’s ONLY goal is to make editing a common place task”
I think that’s only part of the story. Apple could simply do that with iMovie or a modified version of that. FCPX is designed for more advanced users, but of a design that’s quintessential Apple. When Apple uses the term “pro” (i.e. Logic Pro X, MacBook Pro, iPad Pro) they really don’t mean “for professionals”. What they mean is that it’s a beefier product for advanced users who want something more. If that aligns with professionals, then that’s gravy.
[Bob Zelin] “I see on YouTube the countless videos (because I am interested in music) of the AMAZING talents of 8 – 12 year old guitarists, drummers and pianists that are as good as any professional.”
That’s an imperfect analogy when it comes to professional video. And maybe not even accurate. Those young musicians, grow up to aspire to own the same gear as the high end. Guitarists buy custom guitars, amps, and pedals. The hip-hop crowd moved from cheap electronic gear to buying SSL consoles and vintage analog 24-tracks.
In the case of videographers, the new entrants move from iPhones and cheap cameras, to more “pro” gear – Canon C300s, REDs, BMD URSAs, plus glass, lighting, and grip gear. Yes, those tools are cheaper than they were a few decades ago, but they are also better. They buy gear that never existed before, like drones, hybrid monitor/recorders, and more. Plus they buy more of it, like 2 cameras instead of 1.
[Bob Zelin] “I have several “professional” photographers as clients. Their work is very impressive (top modeling agencies). When I suggest that they spend under $1000 for a new drive chassis to protect all their work, they say “are you kidding, I don’t have that kind of money”
Maybe they are more willing to spend it on an iMac and a Promise Pegasus or a cloud back-up service than your proposed system. It could be that’s only the story they are telling you. 🙂
– Oliver
Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com -
Of course, for a more serious look:
– Oliver
Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com -
[Andy Field] “It cost them twice as much than if they’d just let a professional do it once.”
And? Did they fire that person or simply take your edit and go back to him and say, “Make it look more like this next time?”
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All I want from NAB is magic beans.
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You guys are arguing about two separate tracks: A purely technical “machine operator” track, and the content creation track. And yes, if all you want to be is the guy that pushes the buttons, the downwards pressure on salaries for those skill sets will no doubt continue, and yes, younger and younger competitors enter the scene daily. Apple and the other NLE makers have spent the last 2 decades trying to eliminate the of button-pusher as some kind of priest or intermediary between what the content creator wants, and what the technology can deliver.
But fewer of these button-pushers are really content creators. There is and will always be a market for the idea people, the people with a creative vision, and with at least a passing familiarity with the current technology, and the ability to work with experts in certain areas. There is never going to be a “button” on your keyboard for “Generate a unique marketing concept in a visual framework relating to a key audience demographic”.
Really, the content creation; writing, producing, directing, Editorial, is the heart of the business. The part that is immortal and ever-renewing.
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