Before you get too comfy in your switch . . . .

[Herb Sevush]

Matt –

At this point I’m definitely thinking of a platform switch, the idea of investing any money into Mac Pro’s seems very risky indeed.

On the other hand I have no doubt that if either Adobe or Avid get involved in AV Foundation products, those will be designed with pro editors in mind. This false notion that AV Foundation is the reason for the magnetic timeline or the lack of pro features is ridiculous.

Apple was switching to AV Foundation and they CHOSE that point to re-target their video products. One didn’t cause the other, but the fact that it happened simultaneously blinds people into believing a false causality.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Craig Seeman]

That’s a reasonable possibility.

One possibly path this can take is another Mac vs Windows battle. I don’t know how it will play out but it can range from Avid and Adobe dropping Mac support for their NLEs to the other end and making them relay on Apple resources for their development to yet a third way which is some competing technology.

In one/some of the many analysis I’ve read there was speculation on how Apple likes to destabilize things (obviously in an attempt to gain some advantage).

Whatever comes, I suspect we’re just seeing the beginning . . . and it might be tumultuous . . . and I don’t know if it will eventually turn out to Apple’s advantage . . . but I think they’ll try. Seeing Apple take on Adobe Flash might just be a small indicator.

[Simon Ubsdell]

[Craig Seeman] “Apple has been known to try to steer people down a path.”

In terms of their larger, consumer-facing business, this is undeniable.

But how true is it to say that Apple have ever steered the pro-editing (or the pro-audio or the pro-anything) community down a path that wasn’t already quite well trodden by others? If that is their plan now, which it clearly appears to be, it surely represents a departure in terms of the pro-apps, doesn’t it? But it’s not as if they have a track record of doing this within this particular market sector.

Simon Ubsdell
Director/Editor/Writer
http://www.tokyo-uk.com

[Craig Seeman]

[Herb Sevush] “Apple was switching to AV Foundation and they CHOSE that point to re-target their video products. One didn’t cause the other”

Keep in mind widespread use attracts developer support. Targeting the “vast middle” may actually be their “Trojan” back into the high end. It may take a couple of years though.

If, for example, Avid and Adobe eventually support AV Foundation, it may be possible to import those projects into FCPX two or three years down the road when FCPX is looking quite different with wide spread developer support.

Alternately there may be motive to advance technologies on the Windows side so Avid and Adobe aren’t dependent on either Quicktime or AV Foundation.

It does point towards some potential changes beyond FCPX.

[Craig Seeman]

In many respects it is unchartered territory for Apple but so was the iPod and iPhone at one point. Apple does venture into new turf.

I can’t help but think that ProRes, Quicktime’s decline and AV Foundation will result in another major shift. Of course Apple’s leverage may give them advantage or it may be a protracted battle with a very uncertain shift.

FCP did result in major changes over the long haul both in technology and market.

BTW I’ve never thought of Apple as an originator so much as a brilliant aggregator of what pre exists. Apple didn’t invent the NLE, the music player, the smart phone, the tablet. They looked at the market and mixed pre-existing stuff together in new ways.

Other pieces in the puzzle of predicators might be how Webkit was handled or Apple’s original statements about the technology behind FaceTime. I honestly don’t know how those technologies work as predictors of Apple’s behavior. I can’t connect those dots yet. I’m just pondering.

I just think things going on are a bit deeper, long range, greater impact than many have been looking at. I certainly do NOT think it’s as simple as “abandoning the Pro market” nor do I think Apple’s behavior is any guarantee of business success. Giants do wane and fall. I do think there’s more afoot though.

[Herb Sevush]

Does Avid depend on Apple Quicktime at all?

They use it, I don’t think they depend on it.

You do realize that their is a lot more to our business than editing – you know all those cameras, recorders, sound equipment thingies – The ONLY place in Broadcast /Film that Apple even has a presence is in post, and there they have just left the arena. Apple could disappear tomorrow and the Broadcast / Film industry would hiccup once and then move on.

This whole take that Apple is the master of broadcast / film media is laughable. It was only by playing up to, servicing and yes even fawning on the Film / Broadcast media that enabled Apple to get a foothold. Their ability to “steer” the industry ended when they just took a dump on it.

And yet this is all beside the point – you started this post by suggesting that those of us switching platforms should have second thoughts. Why? Nothing you have insinuated is going to happen for years. FCPX needs a year just to catch up with where it should have been, while the other “A’s” are moving forward. Even if your wildest imaginings are true it will take years to play out. Why then should someone trying to earn a dollar take that into consideration now, especially considering it’s mostly idle speculation.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Craig Seeman]

I speculate that Quicktime’s future (or lack thereof) may have even greater impact and it may be deliberate. It’s just speculation though.

[Craig Seeman]

[Herb Sevush] “you know all those cameras, recorders, sound equipment thingies”

You mean the ones the ones that use Apple ProRes?
Obviously not all but some do and some are major and reach into the upper end of the industry.
Of course they can shift to something else. I’m not saying the destabilization will work to Apple’s advantage but it’s their business model to try. Look at the battle they have with Adobe over Flash.

[Herb Sevush] “And yet this is all beside the point – you started this post by suggesting that those of us switching platforms should have second thoughts. Why?”

Not at all. In fact it’s quite possible that Avid and Premiere may eventually have to leave the Apple platform entirely. It may be that Apple will force the decision. It may also be that they may become dependent on Apple’s technology. Who knows. It’s speculation.

If you think Apple isn’t attempting something larger than FCPX you may be underestimating them. It may well be Apple becoming the next Next computer for all we know. They aren’t beyond the attempt to leverage control. That has been their recent history and I expect that the underlying technologies are going to be a factor.

[Herb Sevush]

If you think Apple isn’t attempting something larger than FCPX you may be underestimating them.

I’m not underrating them, you may be entirely right about this. It’s just that it has nothing to do with my decision making in the next year. If Apple takes over the world, I’ll deal with it. I just hope they implement a nice multi-cam feature when they do.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[David Roth weiss]

[Craig Seeman] “If you think Apple isn’t attempting something larger than FCPX you may be underestimating them.”

I keep hearing this Craig from everyone except Apple. Honestly, if it were any company in the world except Apple I doubt anyone would still be even remotely interested at this point without a clear message and path.

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist
David Weiss Productions, Inc.
Los Angeles
https://www.drwfilms.com

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