Apple: Five predictions for 2012

[Jonathan Ziegler]

Would love to see a version of Mac OS for PC platform besides the hackintosh.

Jonathan Ziegler
https://www.electrictiger.com/
520-360-8293

[Craig Seeman]

Apple’s business model is to sell hardware. They are not a software company. They develop services and software to sell hardware.

[Chris Harlan]

[Craig Seeman] “They may replace it with an equally if not more powerful new line.”

That would be great. My guess, however, is that they just aren’t that into it anymore. FWIW, I’d like to be wrong.

[Craig Seeman]

It may depend on what “it” is. I don’t mean to be obtuse.
Just as Apple’s approach to “Pro” may not be what some of use think, Apple’s approach to “powerful” may not be what some of use think as well.

I can’t help but think Apple’s $1000 Thunderbolt monitor is targeted to MacMini or MacBookAir users. I’m not sure if MBP or iMacs will drive enough of those monitor sales. I think Apple will replace the MacPro with something that will at least be an i7 six core with more Thunderbolt ports. I don’t think Xeon is off the table either. Of course one could argue they could do that with another higher end iMac model (sans Xeon in that case I’d think).

[Alban Egger]

That is a silly list anyone can write up. Nobody knows what Apple is up to. At least nobody who can talk about it…….

MacPro: will be back with a vengeance
AppleTvSet: no big surprise this might be years away
IPhone5: well, evolution is going on…..so nothing new here either

I give you my 5 Apple/FCPX expectations for 2012 as a producer/editor:
– multicam
– HD-SDI preview (via thunderbolt and from 3rd parties )
– motion-roundtripping
– cleaner database (that doesn’t go to its knees with thousands of clips)
– API opened up, so plugins come in volumes

Probaly more of a wishlist……..

[Craig Seeman]

Hey, give me my crystal ball back ;->
although I do like what you see in it.
Multicam doesn’t count because Apple said that. How monitoring will work is good speculation though.

[Aindreas Gallagher]

[Craig Seeman] “Apple’s business model is to sell hardware. They are not a software company. They develop services and software to sell hardware.
“

no Craig that is honestly wrong. Jobs said, on the record, with passion that they are a software company – they simply believe in sheathing their software in their own hardware.

That is currently a fundamental expression of Apple.

Apple are now, in profit terms, overwhelmingly producing combined devices that are an expression of software and the enclosed hardware tweaked to within an inch of its life to drive that software.

it is not a brute effort to leverage some software to sell hardware – theirs is now a device model.

the question is whether apple have more than vestigal interest in niche areas, like legacy FCP, dependent on non-consumer behaviour with de-coupled relatively expensive hardware requirements.

(If they did choose to exit it, they… might still choose to make some easy, ongoing appstore prosumer cash selling the badge while they were at it?)

Apple make iPads, Apple make iPhones, Apple make iPods. (They also make beautiful hermetically sealed laptops).

saying that sentence above, one is saying that apple make specific physical enclosures for highly optimised software use scenarios.

you’ve made your argument, I think, in order to validate the notion that FCPX is a true pro gambit to shift iron.

It is not. It is a near throwaway play for growing prosumer video behaviour on an installed consumer hardware platform they control via the appstore.

their research push here would match the accruing dollar value: and that is infinitesimal in their terms.

FCPX isn’t, in our terms, an honest endeavour for Apple, at best it’s tangential, it has about as much importance or validity as pages.
Apple are not, in any sense, an invested player in our space. FCPX represents near nothing strategically to them.

its an end game hurrah – a radically reduced, tailored, throwaway prosumer product.

I would argue that FPCX and motion (that world beater) are the very last we will ever hear from Apple in the pro-space.

a few updates, whatever, and then there will just simply be no pro-apps. I’m saying 36 months? – for full titanic, with near dead software left lolling around.

FCX is now bedded down two floors above imovie, on the appstore – its not going anywhere. Whoever buys it whatever. If they hit a million users – they get three hundred million – like they actually care at this point. As I said – they could care more about the shape of a lozenge on iOS.

this software is the kiss off. Honestly Craig – Apple really and truly are done with this kind of thing.

they just do not care about any of this stuff.

I really do think that Apple are desperately trying to quietly walk away.

http://www.ogallchoir.net
promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics

[Adam White]

I can’t see the Mac Pro being refreshed. Its difficult to see any other outcome than it being dropped entirely at this stage.

It may well be that Thunderbolt provides new kinds of desktop setups that are very different to what we know at the moment.

But, as with the FCPX fiasco, the real problem is that Apple never explain where they are headed and will never, ever provide any kind of meaningful roadmap. This is the central problem! It is incedibly tiresome for companies backed into a corner and forced to play guessing games when they are trying to make good, solid purchasing decisions that aren’t going to disintegrate in a few short months.

I’m rapidly reaching the conclusion that FCPX was a VERY clear statement of intent and that its time to move on, certainy in terms of software but quite possibly in terms of hardware too. It really just doesnt seem prudent to build anything around Apple hardware of software right now.

[Marvin Holdman]

Aindreas Gallagher – “no Craig that is honestly wrong. Jobs said, on the record, with passion that they are a software company – they simply believe in sheathing their software in their own hardware.”

Not exactly sure when he made said this, but I have the feeling that if he could somehow say something like this again tomorrow, he might replace “software” with “iApps”. Combined with the iOS convergence via Lion, it seems like a pretty good description of what we appear to be witnessing and a logical progression of the above statement.

Marvin Holdman
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