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Apple, FCPX and Secrecy – RedShark “Guest Author”
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[Andrew Kimery] “BMD is also a private company and private companies don’t have to follow the same rules the publicly traded companies do (rules set to protect the investors). All the SOX stuff, for example, only applies to publicly traded companies AFAIK.”
Yes, this is true, SOX still applies to privately held companies as it comes down to retaliation against whistleblower employees for complying with law enforcement regarding reporting fraud and other financial slight of hand. So in a way, they have to operate in a similar way to publicly traded companies.
Just because they are private, there are still private investors.
But you are right, they have more flexibility especially since they buy liquidated tech from failing companies.
[Andrew Kimery] “Avid isn’t subscription only.”
Again, true to a point, the support contracts essentially are, so if you want updates you either subscribe or you buy the contracts AFAIK. Since most places I deal with are stuck on v7 of MC because of ScriptSync they are in a pickle either way.
[Andrew Kimery] “Either you subsidize your software with hardware sales or you find an alternative business model like freemium, ad supported or subscription. I mean, in what way could Adobe compete the ‘$299 and free upgrades for life’ business model Apple has with X?”
All I can speak to is what I see them doing, as soon as the outrage the FCP X launch caused they offered ‘switcher deals’ to FCP 7 owners, then Avid followed suit. 1/2 price CS suites and MC licenses just before they went subscription based.
Both Avid and Adobe have switched the narrative by reframing Apple’s credibility for putting professional content creation tools in the hands of more people than ever as a toy company who ‘seem to not care about professionals anymore.’ The phrase ‘feeling abandoned’ was aggressively put everywhere in the twitters, blogs, press releases. Even the Conan editors got on board.
What they did is throw cocktail parties in LA with themes of “We’re listening to you, we have your best interests at heart.” and won hearts and minds of the influencers which keeps the aspirational market, as in the future users with the impression that “If you want to work on real stuff you should learn Avid”
And then Adobe sneaks in there with Gone Girl, Hail Caesar and Deadpool. All three films had major problems using Premiere, but nobody talks about that. The headline is “Amazing filmmakers the Coen Brothers use Premiere.” (Because they didn’t have to learn anything new after using FCP 7)
Adobe have Photoshop, Illustrator and InDesign which are still the industry standard image design apps. They are effectively competing because it’s hard to argue with that level of credibility.
The reason Avid keeps it’s stronghold on the high end film and TV market is they do one thing better than the other two, and that’s shared workflow. In my mind the tradeoffs to working in Avid, that one thing doesn’t outweigh the modern benefits of FCP X.
It’s effective and it has been working, finding an editor willing to use FCP X in LA is still three years after it was ready to do features is like finding a field of nothing but four leaf clovers in the winter.
Thankfully Apple is doing official training at MPEG at the end of the month so I’m hoping that helps that situation.
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[Darren Roark] “Again, true to a point, the support contracts essentially are, so if you want updates you either subscribe or you buy the contracts AFAIK.”
With Avid you buy or subscribe. If you buy, you also need to get an annual support contract to get updates. If you stop the support contract, then your MC version is frozen at the point where the support contract ends. However, it continues to work.
[Darren Roark] “And then Adobe sneaks in there with Gone Girl, Hail Caesar and Deadpool. All three films had major problems using Premiere, but nobody talks about that. The headline is “Amazing filmmakers the Coen Brothers use Premiere.” (Because they didn’t have to learn anything new after using FCP 7)”
Since I’ve interviewed all of these folks, I’d be curious about the problems you are aware of. “Gone Girl” had performance and project load issues, but I don’t see Kirk Baxter going to a different NLE. “Deadpool” burnt through multiple MacPros because it was heavy VFX and Apple’s hardware wasn’t up to snuff. To my knowledge “HC” had a reasonbly smooth run, although custom software was written to track keycode (not an FCPX strength either). So what more was swept under the rug?
[Darren Roark] “It’s effective and it has been working, finding an editor willing to use FCP X in LA is still three years after it was ready to do features is like finding a field of nothing but four leaf clovers in the winter.”
Avid owns the established workflow and editors know the keystrokes like the back of their hand. What’s the incentive to change?
Oliver
Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com -
[Oliver Peters] “The trouble is that the presentation has passed the 90-day mark. Obviously a release version wasn’t “just around the corner”, which is usually the case when Adobe does this.”
As you have probably been seeing, the last release was not one of their best. I had to roll back the documentary I’m working on for many reasons.
[Oliver Peters] “That begs the question: was what was shown simply a ginned up demo version that isn’t anywhere close to release? If so, that speaks pretty poorly of Apple’s development effects.”
I wasn’t there, but I’m guessing it was so they wouldn’t have people saying this sort of thing all over NAB. It was a very positive sign and a major step towards being more open. At every otherwise ‘private’ event which never seem that private they always say the same thing, NDA or not “We are listening to you and we care about what you are saying.”
It amazes me that each attempt to be more inclusive gets turned around to mean the opposite.
If XML and multicam editing came with v10.0 I think the conversation would be much different now.
Personally I would rather wait until something is ready rather than find out the hard way it doesn’t work, or worse damages your work. To me anyway this shows they learned their lesson from 2011, don’t release something that isn’t ready again.
To me this is only a good sign.
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[Darren Roark] “As you have probably been seeing, the last release was not one of their best. I had to roll back the documentary I’m working on for many reasons.
“If you mean Adobe, this build has actually been pretty stable for me. But, yes, I’m aware that others have had problems with it.
Oliver
Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com -
[Oliver Peters] “I’m just saying that based on my experience as a member of the press, beta tester, and high-value customer with some companies, when you show something in a preview, the actual release is usually within a quarter period. That’s been true in the past of Avid, Adobe, Blackmagic Design, and even Apple, to name a few”
Ha, maybe if you specified software only. I am fairly certain one of those companies has certainly ‘shown something in a
preview’ and not had an actual release for much longer than a quarter period……….*cough* Black Magic…..*cough*Gabe Strong
G-Force Productions
http://www.gforcevideo.com -
[Andrew Kimery] “The old way of just selling a perpetual license for a piece of software is dying. “
Perpetual phone licenses are dying too. We haven’t really talked about that here, but it’s a compelling play: keep paying monthly, and we’ll make sure you have the new thing. The plan being pushed on me will allow me to reduce my payments by half, and get a new phone up to twice a year.
The fact is that most people don’t take them up on the offer to change phones twice a year. Me, it takes me 6 months to finish customizing a new phone. LOL Even once a year is almost too much. But for somebody who largely sticks with the stock OS and isn’t a crypto-anarchist about being tied to a carrier, it’s a great deal.
More for iOS since it’s all-but-uncustomizable in any meaningful way, but just as Apple was the first to introduce the end of OS sales and upgrades, I think that subscription-only iPhones will be the norm sooner rather than later.
oooooooooo, says the boomer — you’ll get the crap beaten out of you if you try to change carriers or switch from an iPhone to Android or vice versa! Uhm, why would I do that? I like my phone. All carriers suck but mine is the best in my area or I wouldn’t be using them. What’s YOUR excuse?
Look, we can go down the line. Apple’s music sales business was decimated by monthly subscriptions (notably Spotify) in far swifter fashion than digital sales decimated physical sales. They spent $3 billion for Beats just to stay in the music game at all. Why? Paying monthly for new music is too compelling.
Netflix, anyone? Paying monthly for new movies and access to TV libraries is too compelling.
The perpetual license for cars is dying, too. Leasing now represents over 30% of new car acquisitions. Among millenials, it’s even higher, and rose over 40% last year.
Why? Because paying monthly for the new thing is too compelling.
You folks insisting on permanent licenses for cars, so to speak, are missing the fact that it’s now more often true than not that LEASING IS CHEAPER THAN MONTHLY PAYMENTS.
Why? Because they CAN be. A car manufacturer knows that this year’s lease will very likely convert to another lease in 2018 or 2019, likely for a more expensive monthly payment because it’s only a hundred or two bucks a month to SERIOUSLY upgrade….versus a new sale…when? Five years? Eight? Ten? When you have to compete from scratch against every car in the universe? When the customer may not have the $10-20,000 to go up a level or two?
Fooey. Let’s sell the car to ourselves at a lower price, market new leases directly to the people who are already paying us to KEEP paying us. Eeeeeasy.
Srsly. Buying for $0 down 0% monthly interest is a sucker’s deal for people who are committed to a lifestyle of depreciation and old stuff.
That’s one reason why millennials are leading the way. The lie of longterm ownership being the highest economic good is being exposed as just that. A lie.
Another reason why millennials are leasing in large numbers is because they can. More than just being accessible (the average new car price is $33,000!!!), it offers real benefits. They’ve had enough of driving beaters that break down more often than they can afford to repair, with insurance they can’t afford to keep up, stuck with a trade-in value of next to nothing because the car is next to worthless.
Exchanging that nonsense for one monthly payment + gas. The end.
Here’s what many ppl have missed in your ranting about Adobe and The AWFUL TERRIBLE NO GOOD VERY BAD SUBSCRIPTION-ONLY MODEL. Adobe has more customers than ever.
Keep telling me how bad this is for you, how untenable it is for you. I believe you.
Doesn’t matter. Adobe has more customers than ever. An entire class of customers has access to ALL of Adobe’s stuff that was never going to have access to it before. I think it’s one reason why so many of you have reported the proliferation of jobs requesting Adobe expertise. Because they can. Because there’s a wave of Adobe artists both larger and more proficient than anyone could have predicted even just a few years ago.
Frankly, I’m not convinced that Adobe predicted numbers this high. Certainly exceeding any publicly announced projections.
Anybody who wants FCPX has it. Had it years ago. But there are millions of people who had no meaningful access to After Effects…oh yeah, AND ALL THIS OTHER STUFF…but can now get it for $49/month. Being “locked into Adobe” is as useless an argument as telling them that they’re locking themselves into Netflix or iPhone or Spotify.
“Uhm, why would I stop paying, you bloviating boomer? Can’t you see? I’m getting an insane amount of stuff for very little money, and instead of wasting my time depreciating out of date crap, I don’t have out of date crap. ”
I’m obviously a fan of yapping about philosophy all day long. But note that I’ve barely touched on philosophy here. Just boring old facts. When customers are given a choice, they are stampeding toward monthly payments.
And manufacturers in every field are increasingly less interested in handholding boomers who need the psychological comfort of depreciation as they’re being lowered into their graves. LOL Monthly payments are better business, and leading to higher customer satisfaction across the board.
And hey, paying a trivial amount for FCPX and never paying again is fun too. But Apple’s pretty much the only one who can sustain that model for software, and they’re increasingly encouraging monthly subscriptions for the freshest phones, and are rapidly transitioning to going all-in on music and (I betcha) movies and TV too. They’re done competing with Blockbuster. Time to saddle up on Netflix or say goodbye to that market forever too.
This isn’t just a thing. It’s THE thing. Other than mayyyyyybe the near-universality of credit cards, there has been no economic trend in our lifetimes that has moved nearly this quickly or nearly this broadly. And while this shift is obviously dependent on credit cards, the transition to subscriptions and similar non-purchase installments is also driving the economy faster and further than anything we’ve ever seen before from purchase-only business models.
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[Oliver Peters] “So what more was swept under the rug?”
On Deadpool they had developers working alongside the editors, since this isn’t the Watergate scandal, it’s just software, it’s a reasonable assumption they aren’t going to openly go negative in a case study article. They had dedicated developers working with them, you become close working on a movie with people.
The decision to go with this NLE or that is a reflection of the decision maker too, are they going to want to say the regret going with “NLE X” when they should have been using the industry standard Avid? It will be telling if they do PP on Deadpool 2 or switch to Avid.
A lot of it has to do with Adobe’s focus on making their CC apps work well with each other and put less emphasis on leaving Premiere. Similar issues I’m having now with multicam clips and detached audio on the documentary. I’d be happy to privately discuss the specifics I was told.
The Whiskey Tango articles came out around the same time as Deadpool, only one of those productions said the NLE they chose bought them ten weeks of time.
[Oliver Peters] “Avid owns the established workflow and editors know the keystrokes like the back of their hand. What’s the incentive to change?”
The same thing that always drives any big changes, cost and efficiency. What I was saying earlier is that Avid has done a great job scaring people into even trying FCP X here in LA. So in the talent pool war, Avid is still winning that one.
There are other advantages, the veteran editor I’ve worked with on two features has said, she misses FCP X after she goes back to Avid because her wrists hurt after a day of working in MC.
I’m working on a feature now, I know when they lock picture I have only a few hours of work to do to get it to color and sound. All the difficult work has been done, all the mics are labeled as subroles according to character lav or boom mics. Sound effects and music were given roles on import.
The best part is there is no conform to do with the Red files it’s a flip of a switch back to originals. I’ve done a few tests with Resolve 12.5, the picture comes in to the frame accurately. This hasn’t always been the case but I’m hoping it sticks for a while.
I’m not saying FCP X is perfect, it’s just that even in it’s current form the total sum of advantages it has outweigh the other options in my experience.
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I’m with you Bill, but only in the Chicago land area and in my global travels.
Happy Travels
Ralph Hajik
https://www.RJTravelMedia.com -
[Darren Roark] “On Deadpool they had developers working alongside the editors, since this isn’t the Watergate scandal, it’s just software, it’s a reasonable assumption they aren’t going to openly go negative in a case study article. They had dedicated developers working with them, you become close working on a movie with people. “
Yes, Adobe has been doing this with several films and the editors have worked on custom builds of the software. Avid and Apple both did this in the earliest days of their NLEs, but no longer. Adobe’s argument in favor of doing this is that it gives them real-world situations to improve the software and by doing so, helps them develop features that make it into future public builds. I would further point out that on a large production, it’s often the assistants who take the brunt of any problems and as such, the actual editor and director are often insulated from possible issues, unless we are talking about outright crashes or long load times. FWIW – the Adobe film teams have not shied away from mentioning the latter. In fact, they were running hot-rodded SSD RAIDs to improve performance.
[Darren Roark] “It will be telling if they do PP on Deadpool 2 or switch to Avid.”
In the case of “Deadpool” Tim Miller (director and head of VFX house) made that call because of AE integration and he’s buddies with Fincher. Julian Clarke, the editor, probably would go with Avid the next time around, but I’m not sure Tim would. In the case of the Fincher films, they seem committed to Adobe, including the editors.
[Darren Roark] “The Whiskey Tango articles came out around the same time as Deadpool, only one of those productions said the NLE they chose bought them ten weeks of time. “
Glenn, John and Jan were very happy with FCPX. However, it’s important to note that “WTF” and “DP” have completely different workflows and that the VFX load on “DP” is nothing like that of “WTF” in spite of the shot count. In addition, “WTF” followed a workflow that is completely foreign to the Hollywood way of doing things, although not unknown to most of the rest of the editing world doing corporate, commercial and TV. For example, they worked with full-res ALEXA media without the ARRIRAW mess that other projects shoot. They also did all effects in-house in finished form. So yes, FCPX was efficient, but the total production also added to this and some would argue was even more consequential.
[Darren Roark] “I’d be happy to privately discuss the specifics I was told. “
Feel free to drop me an e-mail at oliverpeters (at) oliverpeters (dot) com.
FWIW – here are my interviews with the various projects, including “Voice from the Stone”, a new FCPX feature:
https://digitalfilms.wordpress.com/2014/11/07/gone-girl/
https://digitalfilms.wordpress.com/2015/03/31/focus/
https://digitalfilms.wordpress.com/2016/03/03/hail-caesar/
https://digitalfilms.wordpress.com/2016/03/25/whiskey-tango-foxtrot/
https://digitalfilms.wordpress.com/2016/04/01/deadpool/
https://digitalfilms.wordpress.com/2016/06/18/voice-from-the-stone/– Oliver
Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com -
Adobe is not telling how many subscription it has per cloud or per product. So we dont know what market segment they are dominating. is it the creative cloud? the marketing cloud? or the print cloud?
Which cloud is growing or stagnent?They are very quiet on this and this speaks loudly. Their business model is fragil good when times favor it but what if there where to be another bubble burst or a repeat of 2008?.
They have painted themselves into the corner and the most of the mid to highend industry behind them. They keep on buying back there own stock and have yet to pay dividends. It looks like a wild ride to make some people rich while leaving others hanging, not saying that it is.
At this moment adobe has a captive market how long can they keep it before the barbarians knock the wall down?
As always no analogy really fits when trying to to compare it to adobes impact.
As for the subscription model? Bubbles are born everyday but burst at the most inconvient times. For some it makes sense to own nothing for other owning is freedom.
Ricardo Marty
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