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Apple and Thunderbolt 3
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[Andrew Kimery] ” I wish Apple would put a desktop GPU in the top of the line iMac but I understand why they don’t (then it really would be way too close in performance to the top of the line nMP).”
Aside from further cannibalizing Mac Pro sales, it’s not currently feasible to put a full-size GPU in the exiting iMac form factor. Even if the iMac was twice as thick it wouldn’t be possible. A full-size GPU can pull 250 watts all by itself. My top-spec 2015 iMac 27 pulls about 155 watts under heavy load — I’ve measured it.
Apple would have to put a hugely bigger power supply in, totally change the cooling, acoustics, make the case a lot bigger — in short it would look more like a 2005 iMac G5: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e2/Apple_iMac_G5_side_rear_view-2005-05-16.jpg
They would obviously not do that for all the iMacs so now we’re talking about a new more expensive special iMac just for that fairly narrow usage case.
Interestingly MSI just introduced such an all-in-one PC, called the MSI Gaming 27XT. It is twice the weight of an iMac 27, consumes 2-3 times the power, is about four times as thick depending on how you measure it — and looks like a monstrosity: https://media.bestofmicro.com/2/X/549609/gallery/Gaming-27XT_05_w_600.png
This year both AMD and nVidia will introduce GPUs using 14/16nm fabrication which will roughly double the performance per watt. This should allow the existing iMac design to have double the GPU performance and a Mac Pro refresh (if they do one) could be a lot faster on the GPU side. From a performance standpoint everyone may get what they want, sooner than we once thought and without adding a “FrankenMac” to the lineup.
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I’ll take that bet. MacPros have always been upgraded on a roughly 2 year cycle, we’re only slightly over that (let’s remember it was Dec 2013, and most people didn’t receive them until Q1 2014)- so a refresh this Summer wouldn’t be as far out of line as people are painting it.
Without PCIe slots, I/O is an even more important part of the nMP that other towers. So it’s been of no surprise to me that a meaningful update to the MacPro has been waiting for whatever combination of Xeon Processor, GPU, Thunderbolt, and USB-C they see as a meaningful upgrade.
If you’re a tinkerer who likes to build their own Machines and stay on the bleeding edge than this surely drives you nuts- and the MacPro isn’t the machine for you.
The only Mac that’s been updated this year is the MacBook (which had USB-C last year). In all likelihood we’re only a month or so away from the release a new MacPro and new MacBookPros with TB3 and USB-C.
“The MacPro is dead”. :/ This is like early 2013 all over again.
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[Joe Marler] “Aside from further cannibalizing Mac Pro sales, it’s not currently feasible to put a full-size GPU in the exiting iMac form factor. Even if the iMac was twice as thick it wouldn’t be possible. “
Totally right about the iMac’s aesthetics not being compatible with a full sized GPU. Besides the smaller GPU architectures coming out, isn’t a new CPU from Intel dropping this year (or dropped recently)? Maybe late in the year we’ll see a nMP as the desired combo of CPUs and GPUs becomes available. Apple requiring custom GPUs in relatively low yields probably doesn’t help matters.
[Marcus Moore] “I’ll take that bet. MacPros have always been upgraded on a roughly 2 year cycle,”
Not to be pedantic but from 2006-2010 we got a new Mac Pro about every 12-15 months (and the Power Macs before that were on about a 6 month cycle). The stretch between the 2010 model and the speed bump in 2012 was, at the time, the longest drought between releases. That gap has been obliterated by the nMP. According to Macrumors the 2010-2012 gap was 685 days, the overall average time between MacPros is 449 days, and the nMP came to to market 885 days ago. Personally I would love it if Apple went back to releasing speed bumps between major revisions so there was always something new every 12-18 months.
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[Andrew Kimery] “Not to be pedantic but from 2006-2010 we got a new Mac Pro about every 12-15 months (and the Power Macs before that were on about a 6 month cycle). The stretch between the 2010 model and the speed bump in 2012 was, at the time, the longest drought between releases. That gap has been obliterated by the nMP. According to Macrumors the 2010-2012 gap was 685 days, the overall average time between MacPros is 449 days, and the nMP came to to market 885 days ago. Personally I would love it if Apple went back to releasing speed bumps between major revisions so there was always something new every 12-18 months.”
In general, the MacPros were 2006, 2008, 20012. Full disclosure, I’d forgotten the 4,1 released in 2009. Remembering the conversations from back then, I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who’d call the 2012 chip swap an “update”, as evidenced that they’re both 5,1. So I think you’d have to call the whole 2010-2013 a single upgrade cycle.
Anyway, I think the challenge with the nMP is that it’s tied not only to CPU and GPU upgrades, which theoretically could be made more often if they chose. But that there’s the extra element of I/O that’s so integral to this machine, and specifically bandwidth (for storage and for displays) that was never really an issue with the old towers. They all came with USB and Firewire 800 thru that whole lifespan. But I/O has been evolving fast in recent years, and I wouldn’t be surprised if much of Apple’s decision to go with this new form factor was built on the early Promise of Thunderbolt/Lightpeak’s original 100Gb/s optical goal. I don’t think they wanted to ship the nMP without 4K display support, which is why they had to wait for Thunderbolt2 to be released in late 2013. Now, with everyone screaming about how you can get a better display on the 27″ 5K iMac- I don’t see how they could have released an updated MacPro anytime after that without 5K display support and not taken an ENORMOUS amount of flack for it. At least that’s my theory.
And so here we are- Thunderbolt3 chips are shipping, USB-C is ready. And there’s some very healthy upgrades on both the CPU and GPU side. So I think we’re set. Both for a new nMP, as well as refreshed 5K Cinema Displays.
Just today I had my Apple rep call me to say that WWDC dates were for June- and did I want to be called if there was a new MacPro announcement.
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[Marcus Moore] “So I think you’d have to call the whole 2010-2013 a single upgrade cycle. “
Agreed, and I meant to mention that in my previous post. So from 2006-2010 we had got five MP revisions (1,1 – 5,1) and then a doesn’t-really-count speed bump in 2012. So the stretch from 2010 to 2013 was longer though I don’t think releasing a new computer once every three years is viable and is gong to help Apple shake fears that the pro line is dead. 😉
I agree with you about the I/O, but even with the old MPs we never got USB 3 or eSATA from Apple even though they were available. It’s like all the engineers got moved onto working on the nMP and the old MP just kinda coasted into EOL. Which, given the amount of people still using the old MP (and the cottage industry of keeping it a viable machine) is pretty interesting. If FCP 7 is the NLE that refuses to die then the old MP is the desktop that refuses to die.
[Marcus Moore] ” I don’t see how they could have released an updated MacPro anytime after that without 5K display support and not taken an ENORMOUS amount of flack for it. At least that’s my theory.”
Less flack than what they’ve received for doing nothing? I think CPU and GPU bumps, even w/o 5K support, would’ve gone over better than just doing zilch and charging the exact same price for a machine unveiled in June of 2013. Whatever the underlying reason(s) are for a machine this old still being Apples top of the line offering I think it looks like they painted themselves into a corner with the design of the nMP (sexy as it is).
What makes this even more disconcerting is that the rate of technological change is only going to keep getting faster so if Apple is already having issues figuring out when (how?) to upgrade the nMP is this indicative of an inherent problem with this line of computers?
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[Tim Wilson] “Not to get into a platform thing, but srsly, anyone committed to this form factor and multi-OS needs to see what HP is doing with the Z1: real live workstation specs.”
But then you are on Windows…which has HUGE issues with QT at the moment, and could never encode to ProRes, which is something many networks I deal with still want (clients too). And I have all of these helper apps that are Mac only (EditReady). THus why I was looking to build a Hackintosh.
[Tim Wilson] “Remember the days when Apple wanted to have the most powerful computers for video production? “
I KNOW!! And they still claim to be there for the professional editor…but the specs of the computers is lagging. I guess they work “good enough” for FCX to work, so they are just going with that. So now we pay a premium for behind-the-times hardware. Bugger me.
Shane
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[Andrew Kimery] “I agree with you about the I/O, but even with the old MPs we never got USB 3 or eSATA from Apple even though they were available. It’s like all the engineers got moved onto working on the nMP and the old MP just kinda coasted into EOL.”
USB3 wasn’t a thing until after the 2010 MP was released. My top of the line 2011 17″ MPB was still Thunderbolt1/USB2. My quick internet search shows that the first Macs with USB3 didn’t ship until June 2012. And at that point I agree that there were no resources being put into the current tower chassis and all development energy was on the nMP.
[Andrew Kimery] “What makes this even more disconcerting is that the rate of technological change is only going to keep getting faster so if Apple is already having issues figuring out when (how?) to upgrade the nMP is this indicative of an inherent problem with this line of computers?”
Well, I think 5K is going to be Apple’s display standard for a while- so I think it’s an important one for them to hit. After that we may well see more regular processor/GPU updates. I say this is an anomaly, based on some specific hardware hurdles.
I might be wrong, but that’s my thinking.
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[Shane Ross] “But then you are on Windows…which has HUGE issues with QT at the moment, and could never encode to ProRes, which is something many networks I deal with still want (clients too).”
Oh absolutely. That’s why I said IF you can do it. If you can’t, you can’t.
Or even if you could but just don’t want to. That’s why I also think platform wars are largely a myth. It’s doable or it ain’t. So I didn’t mean to suggest that this is a straight swap.
My point was only only ONLY that Apple COULD deliver true workstation-grade machine in an iMac form factor. It’s already the case that iMacs can outperform iTrashCans for some tasks. Let it do more.
All Apple has to decide is y’know what? All-in-one is our new form factor, we’re going all-in on it, so we’re going to offer a mainstream performance machine, and a state-of-the-art machine. The iMac and iMac Pro if you will.
The state of the art iMac Pro doesn’t even have to equal an HP Z1, because it seems unlikely that they’ll ever want to go that far again….but they CAN do better in this form factor than they currently are. It’s BEING done.
And it doesn’t cost much more! Maybe NO more. As you point out, an off-the-shelf POS motherboard is beyond anything Apple offers. When did way-ahead-of-Apple tech become commoditized???
Fine, Apple, you don’t want to be bleeding edge anymore. I get it. Your entire business model has been built on being 2-3 years behind the market, and it’s working for you in glorious fashion. My mother’s stock portfolio thanks you. LOL
BUT STILL. COME ON. You can be behind and not be THAT far behind.
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[Marcus Moore] ”
USB3 wasn’t a thing until after the 2010 MP was released. “I know product development takes time so you can’t just add stuff at the last minute but, IIRC, PCs started showing up with USB 3.0 in ’09/’10, and AFAIK there was nothing preventing Apple from adding it or eSATA later if they wanted to (it’s not like they don’t have a habit of getting first dibs on tech if they want it). They just didn’t want to add those features, presumably, because they were focused on the nMP. I wonder if nMP development took longer than they thought it would and that’s why they released the meager speed bump in 2012?
[Marcus Moore] ” I say this is an anomaly, based on some specific hardware hurdles.
I might be wrong, but that’s my thinking.”
I hope so but given the path of the MP from 2010 to today I’m not exactly instilled with confidence.
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[Shane Ross] “I am going to wager that we will never see another MacPro update.”
How much are you willing to wager?
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