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Final Cut Pro X – Sales Figures. Almost.
MacRumors
https://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1705961original Asymco link
https://www.asymco.com/2014/02/10/fortune-130/I have no idea where Asymco is getting his source data (if anyone can find it, please link), and it’s important to note that the charts are “interpretations” of certain Apple numbers, but if I’m reading this correctly he’s got revenue numbers on Apple Pro Apps.
This is what I read (revenue by year for “Apple Pro Apps”)
2009 ~0.8 Billion
2010 ~1 Billion
2011 ~1.2 Billion
2012 ~1.2 Billion
2013 ~1.8 BillionI’m assuming that “Pro Apps” are FCPX, Aperture, Logic and related (Compressor, Motion, Main Stage). Also probably worth noting that Logic was 500.00 until the end of 2011 (reduced to 200.00), Aperture was 200.00 until feb 2010 (reduced to 80.00). FCPX of course was released mid 2011.
No doubt there will be other interpretations, but I’ll venture these estimates for FCPX sales (on the assumption that about two-thirds of Pro App revenue is FCP, except for 2011 which included FCP 7 sales):
2011: 1 million units
2012: 2.5 million units
2013: 4 million units… or about a total of 7.5 million currently.
Final caveat – if his figures are just guesses, then I guess we’re back to square one …
Franz.
(also, what sense in the decline of music sales?) -
9 Replies
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is the assumption of 2/3 for FCP based on something or just a wild guess?
I remember when logic X was introduced, people on audio forums were raving about the app. Logic X is really a great application, wouldn’t surprise me if many people bought that app, even only for the “drummer’ feature
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[Andre van Berlo] “is the assumption of 2/3 for FCP based on something or just a wild guess?”
Andre,
It’s a guess.
I assumed, FCPX being the most expensive of the Pro Apps after 2011 (and generally the “top grossing” application, according to Apple, whatever that means) that it would generate the lions share of revenue.
Could be wrong.
Franz.
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there’s also the fact that pro apps are currently grossing nearly as much for apple as itunes music sales.
that would make X, which realistically has to be the lions share, something other than a pro nostalgia leftover at cupertino.
https://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics
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[Aindreas Gallagher] “pro apps are currently grossing nearly as much for apple as itunes music sales.”
Aindreas,
The data is a bit unclear to me but I believe that they’re showing Apple’s .30 take on each 1.00 sale for iTunes. (Could be wrong.) Not sure if that really makes a difference but should be taken for what clarity it offers.
Also you might have to squint a bit at my figures, eg. he reports ProApps up 29% so the figures might be more like 1.3 Billion one year and 1.7 the next.
On rereading his post, it seems clearer that the total for “iTunes, Software, and Services” comes from Apple – and the rest is just his guesses at how that breaks down. So this is all just estimates (and maybe we’re back at square one …)
Do people really get paid to make charts of pretend numbers?
Franz.
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The one thing indisputable is that clicking to book a $299.00 or $399.00 data sale is a monstrously stronger revenue driver than clicking to book a buck or two song data sale.
The iTunes Music Store construct might go down in history as the true Apple ‘change everything” vision.
Bits for bucks in real time. Completely brilliant as a pure business results driver.
Know someone who teaches video editing in elementary school, high school or college? Tell them to check out http://www.StartEditingNow.com – video editing curriculum complete with licensed practice content.
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Horace is a pretty smart guy. And he always tries to be clear when his data is interpretative.
I listen to his podcast THE CRITICAL PATH regularly- and he did a segment a few months ago about how he’d been trying to backtrack iTunes revenue numbers based on various pieces of information that Apple does release publicly during keynotes, quarterly earnings calls, and investor meetings.
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[Franz Bieberkopf] “(also, what sense in the decline of music sales?)”
I can’t remember where, but I read that this was happening because of the radio launch and other radio services. They figured to eat their own with iradio.
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While pretty consistently in the top 25, FCPX is often ranked below both Logic and Aperture, except after a major update when it jumps up. So if higher overall volume cancels out highest price, I’d be surprised if FCPX is more than half of ProApps sales. But that’s just a my guess.
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[Marcus Moore] “But that’s just a my guess.”
Marcus,
Yes, well the more you look at this, it’s all just guesses.
By my guesses based on Horace’s figures, Apple would have sold one copy of FCPX for every 4 Macs sold in 2013. I’ll leave it up to general speculation as to whether that holds water.
Franz.
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