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arstechnica article on FCPX
In the absence of any news!
Steve Connor
“FCPX Agitator”
Adrenalin Television -
32 Replies
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To me, FCPX is like the High School pitching phenom that’s destined to be a Major League star. You recognize the raw talent. Understand that it has to develop. If you’re a pro team he’s not ready for the rotation yet. That doesn’t mean the talent isn’t there. If you need a starting pitcher today, he’s probably not it. On the other hand, your smart scouts are telling you to sign him now. The scouts who don’t see this are going to lose out.
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Well that’s a pretty sobering article and I can really understand why the big production setups are giving FCPX a side step.
As mentioned so many times the fact that Final Cut Studio was knocked on the head at the same time as the seemingly juvenile X was released did nothing to help keep people on board.
But for small production companies like the one I work for the switch to FCPX is really starting to pay dividends.
I have to agree with what Ryan Poirier says in the article.
“My personal view on FCP X is that it’s a brilliant program, provided the user can essentially forget everything they’ve learned from using the previous Final Cut Pro/ Studio applications and go into it with an open mind. Don’t be quick to judge a book by its cover, or give in to all the negative hype,” Poirier told Ars. “I may be more optimistic then others by nature, but after learning FCPX in it’s current state, I’m more excited about future potential of the application then I am concerned with it’s current shortfalls. “
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[Craig Seeman] “To me, FCPX is like the High School pitching phenom that’s destined to be a Major League star. “
And like that high school phenom, the odds are 100-1 that he will flame out in the minors (bad arm, bad head, bad habits) and never get to the show.
Your choice of metaphor, not mine.
Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf -
[Herb Sevush] “that he will flame out in the minors”
I wont argue the possibility. I don’t think the odds are that bad. Consider the resources behind him (Apple). Of course it depends on what you think of that as well.
[Herb Sevush] “Your choice of metaphor, not mine.”
I chose that metaphor deliberately. I think it’s appropriate. I make no claims to knowing the future but scouts observe and recommend when it comes to future prospects. I think FCPX is an excellent future prospect. This scout would make him a high minor league pick.
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[Craig Seeman] “I chose that metaphor deliberately. I think it’s appropriate.”
The odds of a high school pitcher, no matter how highly thought of, making the bigs are so low that many teams refuse to draft high school pitchers at all. 100-1 is an overstatement, but if you knew the actual odds I believe you would have chosen a different analogy. 18 year old can’t miss hitting prospects yes; 18 year old can’t miss pitching prospects don’t exist.
Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf -
FCPX the next Steve Dalkowski?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Dalkowski1970 profile of Dalkowski concluded, “His failure was not one of deficiency, but rather of excess. He was too fast. His ball moved too much. His talent was too superhuman… It mattered only that once, just once, Steve Dalkowski threw a fastball so hard that Ted Williams never even saw it. No one else could claim that.”
FCPX has a mean fastball.
Dalkowski was also famous for his unpredictable performance and inability to control his pitches.
Very wild. I think Apple has the best coaches in the league though. They’re good at spotting talent. They’ve cut the roster a lot these days so their in a rebuilding phase but I think they have a good eye for young talent. They have a good minor league system.
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[Craig Seeman] “FCPX the next Steve Dalkowski?”
I know who Dalkowski was, without Wikipedia. If you want to claim that FCPX is the Steve Dalkowski of NLE’s, go right ahead. You can even call it the Brian Taylor or Pat Jordan of NLEs if you want to be more tragic – the list goes on and on.
Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf -
[Herb Sevush] “I know who Dalkowski was, without Wikipedia”
For the benefit of other people who may not get an obscure reference. Not everyone here is a baseball fanatic.
Some thing FCPX will be the tragedy. I think not.
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[Craig Seeman] “For the benefit of other people who may not get an obscure reference”
You mean Baltimore Orioles minor league pitching prospects from the ’50s are obscure? I must be out of touch. See that’s the difference Craig, you worry about confusing your audience (the Apple way) I figure if they don’t get it they can look it up (my way.) Your way annoys the knowledgeable, my way annoys everyone 😉
Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf -
Not having posted on the Cow before, I specifically created an account just to respond to Herb’s mention that 18 year old pitching prospects don’t exist, a counter to the previous statement that the odds are better than Herb infers. Herb is spot on with his assessment. Years ago I did a series of videos with pitching coach Tom House and Tom stated it took 2 years for someone (even at the pro level) to develop a change-up, curveball, fastball, or slider. Obviously the 2 year period could fluctuate depending on a lot of variables, but at 18 that kid hasn’t had the time to master much of a fastball, let alone even getting it over the plate. End of point.
Getting back on track with Final Cut users switching software I think it more telling if you look at the Apps store and view the rankings of Final Cut, Motion, and Compressor with a side glance at iMovie. Currently iMovie sits at #8 moving down from #7 in the last week. FCX is at #21 having been #19 a little while ago. Since iMovie sells for $14.99 and FCX at $299, it would take roughly 20 times more people purchasing iMovie to equal FCX. We’ll never know the exact figures, but more to the point is that iMovie is not only still selling, but to a wider user base than FCX. My guess is that curiosity drove them to FCX, but iMovie is what they are settling on. Can’t imagine it being the other way around or FCX would be #1. It would be even more compelling to find out how many people bought FCX and then asked for their money back.
That said we now look at Motion and Compressor. Motion is currently at #49, but used to be #37. Compressor used to be #56 before dipping to #80. You would think Motion and Compressor would be considered part of an editing package and be purchased in equal numbers right along with FCX. Such is not the case even though both are priced at $49.99. Development costs for Motion and Compressor are not worth supporting if being #49 and #80 is the eventual return on investment. To put it another way: Angry Birds are kicking their ass.
Tim Cook is a bean counter. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but bean counters worry about return on investment, not whether video professionals are having their needs met. It’s the bottom line or the highway. In my opinion, it’s not a matter of “if” but “when” and that has a lot of us (including me) very scared.
Gordon Modin
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